Locklin on science

Things the establishment got wrong about wuhan-coof

Posted in corona-chan, stats jackass of the month by Scott Locklin on August 12, 2021

I’ve neglected to talk about the Wuhan death virums until now, mostly because I’ve been enjoying the spectacular fuckery on display, the gaping credulity, the mass hysteria and the moronic panic. Also because the last thing anybody needed over the last year and a half is yet another dipshit adding to the noise. My employers asked me to evaluate the situation using the best public knowledge back in March and April 2020, and I did so; I did pretty well with my estimates. I haven’t thought about it much since then, other than on the occasions in which the situation inconveniences me: and then only to the extent that I get the job done.  It’s simply not that interesting, and knowing something of history I’m not particularly worried about the disease; more worried about governments using it as an excuse for totalitarian shenanigans. As such, it’s worth remembering how badly “the authorities” have handled the situation from the earliest days, in the same spirit as Matt Taibbi’s excellent discombobulation of the similarly insane Russiagate conspiracy theories. None of my statements below are scientifically or historically controversial, though I’m sure someone will attempt to argue otherwise.  Here’s my list of establishment fuckups:

  1. It’s just the flu. Yeah, they actually said that. For a long time. I assume because Orange Man was taking it seriously.
  2. Fatality rate. People still think the infection fatality rate of the ‘rona is equivalent to that of the black death. It’s not. It isn’t harmless either. This is exactly the kind of thing our modern “technocrats” are completely unable to deal with. It’s nowhere near as bad as the Spanish Flu. It’s somewhere around the fatality rate of the 1968 Hong Kong flu or the 1957 Hong Kong flu. By the way, we didn’t react to either disease the way we did to this one; most people alive back then didn’t even remember them happening. It took months and months before the numbers were in (despite little old me figuring it out in April); now the CDC has pretty good numbers. Ones which will get you banned from Facebook if you mention them. FWIIW for Americans (who are fat, old and unhealthy compared to world standards) below 18, your chances of croaking of the thing if you’re infected is about 1 in 50,000 or 100,000. For 18-49, 1 in  2000. 50-64, 1 in 200 (a bad flu, basically) and 65+ it is 1 in 20 (much worse than the flu). The data which inform these numbers were available in April; I had the integral nailed basically from the cruise ship figures. It’s useful to compare to chances of dying of other things. For example, a 12 year old’s chances of dying of corona-chan if infected (which seems to be a rare occurrence for some reason) is about the same as being struck by lightning.
  3. Masks. The same dipshits who now think you should wear a mask while outside by yourself insisted that they were ineffective, because they knew the mask factories had long since been outsourced to China, and they wanted those masks for hospital worker to have while doing tiktoc videos. Now we have to wear them forever, because muh consensus or something.
  4. Tests. One of the reasons it appeared to be certain doom for civilization at the beginning is right censoring of the data. Tests were difficult to obtain in the early days due to production ramp ups, so they only gave the tests to people who were obviously dying of pneumonia. There were huge numbers of people who had the virus but weren’t counted because they were restricting the tests to the few who were hospitalized, presumably to distinguish them from people dying of bacterial pneumonia. But then, the data was used as if they weren’t right censored, and they came up with the skewed figures for infection fatality rate. The tests themselves have all kinds of problems. They all have both false positive and false negative rates which, afaik are large, but still fairly poorly specified. PCR tests were sometimes useless as laboratories were often contaminated. Antibody tests were only useful a few months after initial exposure. Early on Tanzania’s president (F for him) had some fruits and a goat tested  and they tested positive.  Schoolchildren regularly get out of school by contaminating their ‘rona tests with soft drinks. These sorts of statistical issues are core problems people have been aware of for a century, yet people acted as if there was no such thing as a false positive of false negative and treated the tests as scientistic facts, rather than statistical tools which a proper scientist or Bayesian technician might think of differently.
  5. Data censoring, false positives/negatives in general. This problem was pervasive at the beginning, and it’s still a huge problem. More tests given, more positives, even when there are no more actual cases due to false positives. Some countries are requiring a test be given before you go to a restaurant or hotel. Test rates skyrocket, then of course these countries are showing more cases.  Lots of the data is like this; nobody seems to notice or care. At last peak hysteria (have we reached peak hysteria? can’t tell!), there were multiple errors per week one could publish a “you’re doing your stats wrong” paper on.
  6. Time series nature of data. The stupidity of this one absolutely blows my mind. I remember country/region X doing better than country/region Y at point T, people chimping out  that country X was a model for all. This repeated enough times to make everyone who made such assertions look incredibly stupid. I can’t link to the many examples; there are too many. Just for example: vaccine efficacy data in the general population is entirely summertime; we’ll only be able to tell if they do anything come winter; it already isn’t looking real good. My theory has always been that lung borne viral ailments will basically do what they please, and humans are helpless before them.  So far it looks like I am correct. This wasn’t/isn’t the only time series problem with time censored data, but it was a big one. Lung borne ailments are much worse in the wintertime, so if you’re comparing winter to summer without a model (caution; using models considered harmful), you have failed.
  7. Epidemiological Models. Neil Ferguson’s trash fire was the most famous example, credulously reported as muh science by ding dongs in the media, government and nerd establishment. At the time, the dipshit wouldn’t release the source code; with good reason. Ultimately it was a random number generator depending on a bunch of mystery constants chosen by the user, making it…. essentially someone’s opinion. People did notice (and were shouted down) the same piece of code predicted  mass death that never happened with…. 2005 bird flu, 2009 swine flu, and arguably the 2001 foot and mouth disease outbreak. Ultimately he was talked into releasing source code, which the greatest living C programmer heroically cleaned up for him. Mind you this was during a huge crisis; but we couldn’t embarrass the great scientist by allowing mere peasants to review his ridiculously flawed work. Even after he was revealed to be a total mountebank, the only thing which removed this scoundrel from public influence was the revelation of breaking quarantine for a squalid affair with someone else’s nerdy wife.  Similarly, there were a bunch of silly con valley goons caterwauling about ‘muh exponential growth’ who also deserve considerable opprobrium. Repeat after me: there is no such thing as exponential growth. Physical processes are logistic at best. I’m sure there were other examples; arguably too many to count.
  8. Lock downs. They mostly didn’t work. Remember when opening Texas back up was tantamount to genocide? Yeah, I remember that. Remember when everyone in Florida was gonna die unless they lock up immediately? I remember that too. Remember when Georgia committed genocide by opening in summer of 2020? Remember when everyone in Sweden was going to immediately croak? None of those things came to pass. Locked down California had a higher death rate than not-so-locked down  Florida who mostly did the sane thing of protecting their numerous old people rather than locking everyone up where they could cough on each other. Sweden did better than most of Europe. Nothing big happened in Texas or Georgia when they opened up, other than small businesses coming back to life. Remember when California, Connecticut, Massachusetts saved all those lives by implementing harsh lock downs? Well, that actually never happened at all. You can juggle the statistics in a way that make it look like there is some marginal effect here, but whatever it is, the effect is marginal, where the effect on people’s every day lives was enormous and entirely negative. Aka lock downs are basically ineffective outside of some very narrow circumstances, like cutting off air travel (which the establishment was against, and they now lie about) and living on an island. Quarantine sort of works, but it needs to be applied in a sane way, for example, the way it was with measles and polio outbreaks before vaccines. Just locking everyone up doesn’t work. It’s definitely the favorite technique of tyrants; has been since the 1600s. Didn’t work back then either, but it sure made people poor and angry. Reminder: only the Swedes (and Japanese and Belorussians but we don’t talk about them) got it right. I know it makes the human soybeans real mad: but they were right and the totalitarian numskull official “experts” were wrong.
  9. Two weeks to flatten the curve. Yeah, I remember that. Somehow that turned into “oh you idiots are going along with this; let’s do it forever.”
  10. Ventilators. Remember when  car companies were going to ramp up “wartime production” on ventilators so we could all stay alive in our hospital cucksheds? Remember when amateur scientists and hacker soyboys were inventing home made ventilators to save us all? Well, they quietly stopped talking about this, because it turns out these things were basically murder machines. There are now numerous videos of the things filling up landfills. This is a case study in large scale iatrogenics. Countries which didn’t have literal tons of ventilators did much better than countries which had the things. The low oxygen levels from the “ground glass” lung destruction effect were more effectively and easily treated with … oxygen. And leaving people alone, rather than death pressure fucking their lungs with some demonic contraption which probably helped spread the ‘rona in hospitals. Really the technocratic obsession with these ridiculous machines ought to be a case study in the abnormal psychology of twee nerds. Even at the beginning when I went along with the crowd and thought there might be a need for such machinery there was something unseemly and disgusting about the gruesome glee among certain schnerds to shove a tube down everyone’s throat and pressurize their lung sacs with …. muh technology.
  11. Overloaded hospitals. Never really happened. Sure some hospitals were busy. Some hospitals are busy every year. The preposterous spectacle of TikTok dancing nurses and empty hospitals was pretty bad, as were nitwits cheering on medical workers like trained seals, and the insistence that the hospitals really were overwhelmed and you had to be some kind of conspiracy theorist to deny this. Then the layoffs started. You see, telling everyone who isn’t dying of ‘rona to stay away from the hospital more or less bankrupts the hospitals. You have to print a shitload of skrilla to keep them ticking over doing nothing when no actual corona-virums patients show up. Which is what happened in most places. Since corona-chan is a physical thing, you’d more or less expect it to be geographically concentrated rather than evenly distributed over the set of all hospitals; some hospitals overwhelmed, as indeed some were, but the vast majority doing nothing but TikTok videos. Lying about it didn’t inspire a lot of confidence in the proverbial powers that be. Anybody could drive by their local hospital and see that it was empty, and that the army tents set up outside were also empty. Classic central planning blunder, and totalitarian denial of reality afterwords.
  12. Nursing Homes. Remember when several US governors (NY, NJ, PA, Mich) thought the hospitals would be so full of meat puppets hooked up to breathing machines they would overflow? Remember when the same US governors put non-ventilated corona virus patients in nursing homes with all the old people? Remember how pretty much all those governors states had huge fatality rates? Well, these facts are all related, and those governors play acting as miniature dictators should be held to account for murdering grandpa. Instead they’ll be held to account for awkward flirtations, because America is a profoundly unserious country which takes accusations of creepiness more seriously than boomer genocide. BTW wrote this before it actually happened.
  13. Airborne/aerosolized pathogen. It was abundantly obvious from the goddamned cruise ship data that the virus was airborne; from the very get-go. Some sniffly lawyer in New Rochelle spread it to half the big apple in the early days. Choir members in churches had a very hard time. No matter how many “fomites” one man could spread, even a huge slob, it was obvioso it had to be airborne. Only now are people beginning to admit this. After a year of learned magnificoes and most official channels stating categorically that this couldn’t possibly be true. Instead we had people doing ridiculous things like washing their groceries with bleach because muh fomites. This obvious fact could have informed policy; you can do shit like install better air filters instead of security theater like neurotically constantly sterilizing your hands. The “over cautious” approach of health and political authorities to obvious truisms like the fact that the ‘rona was an airborne pathogen is extremely typical of their responses to everything. If it was politically convenient they were absolutely sure of themselves, even if it was obviously wrong. Faced with ridiculous, preposterous amounts of evidence, they dragged their feet, demanded double blind studies and other such theater, and eventually, a year or two later, admitted they might have been wrong, but how dare you notice that they were wrong.
    What really bugs me: there is still really no good information on how it spreads. How do superspreader events work? Let’s reduce it to the basics. Is it snot? Farts? Does it come from higher lung pressure such as singers or fat people experience? Nobody wants to tell. Perhaps the real answer is …. politically incorrect -maybe it’s the disgusting, shambling obese people who spread it. Those who would deprive the unvaccinated of their civil rights; would you not be willing to deprive fat people of theirs? They seem more dangerous to me. Certainly they’re harder to look at. Both are a personal choice; choosing to be a disgusting fatbody is easily more deadly even in the absence of any new corona viruses.
  14. Cross-immunity/asymptomatic. A friend of mine tested positive for ‘rona antibodies; he felt a bit run down and wondered if he had been exposed. He had been (modulo false positives). I had spent the previous week being a tourist with the guy; for all I know I was exposed to it as well (I felt fine; mostly ate and drank too much).  There is now abundant evidence for both asymptomatic carriers and cross immunity from exposure to other corona viruses. For months this was dismissed as a conspiracy theory. Now it’s accepted as fact.
  15. Multiple infections. People can indeed get the ‘rona a couple of times. This is used as a justification for vaccinating people who already had the disease. This practice is, of course, known to be bullshit: that isn’t how the immune system works. Believing that somehow the vaccine is better than the infection in protecting against reinfection is stygian ignorance, and attribution of nonexistent magical powers to muh technology.  People administer the vaccines to people who had the illness anyway. Why? Don’t know, but considering the other nonsense in circulation, you can’t blame the tinfoil helmet types for being a bit suspicious of the “authorities.” Frankly, vaccinating people who already had the disease sounds dangerous to me. Since the vaccine sides are related to autoimmune problems when your cells start producing viral proteins; that’s going to happen even more if you’ve already got an immune system that knows what to do; such as among previously infected people. FWIIW every indication is that natural immunity by itself is superior to prevent future infection.
  16. Taking kids out of school. Granted this was mostly an American shitlib school district problem, but I suspect a lot of teachers unions will ask for next year off as well, so it’s worth mentioning they were wrong about this also. Many countries did not cancel school, and nothing bad happened to them.
  17. Bill Gates is a doctor/expert/whatever, rather than a college drop out who won the sociopath lottery. There is really no more reason to listen to Bill Gates about wuhan lung butter than the theories of the fruit merchant on my street corner.  Even his wife got sick of listening to this sinister sperdo’s bullshit, which, mercifully, seems to have temporarily made bubble head Bill go away.
  18. Risk factors. Just like with HIV/AIDS back in the 80s, they’re treating this as if we’re all equally at risk. Just like with HIV/AIDS we’re absolutely not. You’re pretty much not getting teh GRIDS unless you inject a few gallons of randomly sampled man batter up your keister, or share needles with people who do (or who share needles). Similarly, you’re not dying of the wuhan death virums unless you’re already dying of something else; obesity, diabetes most prominently featured in the united states, but there are a few others. As was the case with the GRIDS, tragically, there were a few exceptions which proved the rule. Unfortunately the same evil dipshits tried to get us all to draw the wrong conclusions on this; just as they are now -parading out “young and healthy” 400 lbs monstrosities taken in “the prime of life.” It’s sad hemophiliacs and blood transfusion recipients in the 80s died of AIDS, just as it’s sad 400lb 48 year olds are dying of wuhan-coof, or 80 year old nursing home residents are taken a few years before their allotted times. On the other hand, seeing obviously fit 25 year old women nervously jogging outside with their masks on is pretty fucking ridiculous.
  19. Treatments/prophylaxis. There was reasonable early evidence hydroxychloroquine has some salubrious effect. However Orange Man liked it, so it had to be proven wrong with fraudulent studies. There’s still  some evidence it might have benefits. Plenty of other substances have strong evidence of effectiveness, including the humble “vitamin-D hammer.” At this point, the evidence that dying of corona-chan is partially dying of vitamin-D deficiency is so overwhemling, all public health officials should be held criminally liable for not suggesting everyone start taking 5000 iu a day. It’s good for you and will prevent other problems even if it has no effect on your Chinese lung-butter survival rates. Similar comments may apply to zinc. Ivermectin appears like it could be efficacious, both as a preventative and a treatment; maybe it is, maybe it isn’t -but it is absolutely politicized in the US at least, and I could get banned on most social media platforms for suggesting we look into it. Of course, there’s no money to be made using common and harmless drugs and supplements. More to the point, in the US, you can’t legally use experimental vaccines if there are efficacious treatments available. Saying these things, which appear to be statistical facts, is considered so dangerous, tech companies will ban hammer you for the crime of saying them. There are still huge efforts to prevent people knowing about these potential treatments, and US doctors are basically not allowed to use them, even though the side effects are fewer than that of OTC medicines such as Tylenol.  Even if the above treatments were useless or marginal; the government approves useless or marginal treatments all the time. But they typically only do so when there is money involved.  They even did it for corona-chan; remdesivir is probably useless, but it’s patented and it sure does make some money Gilead can use for campaign contributions. Instead of making these off-label treatments available to doctors, the swine remove a common and completely harmless OTC supplement, N-acetyl-cysteine from circulation when it proves it may be of utility in treating this illness. What kind of garbage human would even consider doing this? The kind of goon we hire to run the FDA apparently. Can everyone say “regulatory capture” boys and girls?
  20. Smokers. In the beginning it was hypothesized that the Chinese were dying of this new virus because many of them smoke and there’s lots of bad air in Chinese cities. Then the actual data started coming in. Turns out smokers are much less likely to be hospitalized and die of the ‘rona than non-smokers. This makes right thinkers everywhere sad. They even post obviously false papers reassuring themselves that smoking is bad mkay, but it is a huge, enormous and won’t go away statistical effect, even a dose dependent one; not quite the effectiveness of vaccines, but good enough nicotine was tested in clinical trials. I’m not suggesting people go out and buy a carton of marlboros (lord knows there are enough fearful idiots out there some would if muh science experts told them to), but it is one of those things where the “experts” are at a total loss; something they’ve been telling us is certain death for decades actually has some health-conferring benefits (FWIIW, also for Parkinsons disease). It’s part of the morality of the current year clerisy that smoking is bad mkay. A serious and cold blooded actual technocracy would accept that it confers some benefit as a coronavirus prophylaxis, figure out why smokers don’t die of rona as often as “healthy” people, and how to use it to our benefit, rather than posturing with paternalistic purity preening.  I’m told by amateur historians tobacco was thought in olden times to have protective effects against the grippe and other plagues; maybe our forefathers were right on this one. Either way it makes fools of our “experts” and is worth noting.
  21. Regime approved riots and spontaneous demonstrations of gratitude and joy didn’t spread corona virums, but evil nasty and filthy republican protests did somehow, because, I dunno, muh white privilitch or something.
  22. Censorship as public health measure. This is a truly preposterous thing in light of all of the above. Not only are Alex Jones tier tin-helmet types being censored, but respectable scientists who do not conform with the prevailing establishment opinions are also being censored and demonized. The very concept of “freedom of speech” is that voices outside of the consensus might be right about some things, and a society which practices free speech is better off than one which attempts totalitarian thought control. Of course, people are prey to all kinds of bad ideas, but our “elites” are also (allegedly) people, and it’s obvious from the above they don’t really know what they’re talking about either. Science only works in conditions of free speech, you fucking murble-wurble-wub-science nincompoops.
  23. Delta as transmissible as Chicken Pox. This is an overt lie, which I suppose they’re getting away with because of censorship as a public health measure. Chicken Pox has a reproduction number R0 of 10 or 12. Right now, the delta variant is dominant in the US, and the reproduction number R0 is below 2 in every state. Why not go for broke and say it’s 10x worse than measles (R0 of 12-18)? I mean, if you’re just making up bullshit, why not go big?
  24. Honorable mention: some of the nonsense was pretty fringe even at the time (suggestions of glory hole use for safer sex), but notable for being taken vastly more seriously than all the shit they got wrong and banned from asociable media. My very favorite was the New York Times suggesting all men become estrogen treated castrati to protect them from the fearsome ‘rona. Vitamin-D or ceasing to be a disgusting fatbody, naaaah; just chop your nuts off and take some birth control pills and everything will be great. This should probably be enshrined as some kind of apotheosis of contemporary “technocratic” thought. Because if there’s one thing we need right now, it’s more castrated men.

Could be wrong can’t tell yet:

  1. Vaccinations efficacy. Most people think of various kinds of ronavax as a sterilizing vaccination the way polio vaccines are; not so. This has obvious and non-obvious consequences. The obvious one is you could be vaccinated and get sick or die of ‘rona anyway. The not so obvious one is that this will simply cause the virus to become more easily spread to people who have been vaccinated: that’s how evolution works. It may also become more deadly: this happened with a non-sterilizing vaccine for a chicken herpes virus.  While the preliminary large scale evidence for vaccination effectiveness is reasonably convincing by now, it’s far from definitive, and is entirely short term. Back when it seemed it might be Orange Man Vaccine, they sure were cautious about shipping things too soon. It is entirely possible vaccinated countries start getting the ‘rona at rates comparable to what one would expect come winter time, we’ll know this science experiment was a towering error.  Especially if the deaths peak  up as well. I’m not saying that will happen, but it could happen, and nobody should accept “muh variants” and “muh booster shots” as explanation and solution.
    Indeed, eventually, vaccine or no vaccine, the virus will eventually be just another coronavirus endemic in the populace, just as it was in 1889 when HCoV-OC43 probably became endemic. There’s an obviously true thing our psychological terrorist “technocrats” and their enablers won’t tell you. Barring huge breakthroughs SARS‑CoV‑2 will be with us forever. It will be with us for so long, eventually it will no longer be called SARS-Cov-2; it will have some other more innocuous name like HCoV-NL63 does. It will eventually just be another respiratory virus of no particular distinction. No lung borne ailment, let alone a viral one, has ever been eliminated by humanity. FWIIW the attention paid to coronaviruses now may end up telling us a lot of sudden death or clotting or viral pneumonia is associated with rare reactions from the other endemic coronaviruses. Would be interesting to know; probably a good many human ailments we attribute to nonsense like eating bacon are actually viral or bacterial; our science is so bad here it took until 2005 to fully recognize the fact that human ulcers were caused by Helicobacter pylori.
    Oh yeah, while I’m at it; there sure are a lot of “95% effective” vaccines. I have not looked closely at the raw data, but the probability of there being multiple 95% effective vaccines seems pretty low to me; even based on Benford’s law. When I see 95% all I can think of is p-value hacking. FWIIW CDC fucked up looking at breakthrough cases, because, I guess, it would be bad marketing for the vaccines. Evidence becoming overwhelming though. Iceland is looking pretty bonkers. So much so, Iceland’s chief epidemiologist has stated that herd immunity must be achieved via viral infection. Only “kooks” seem to have noticed this, and it may be wrong, but Iceland unlike the US is still a serious country, so it must be taken at least as seriously as the idea that a 17 year old who already had the ‘rona must be vaccinated.
  2. Vaccines: strategy As evidence mounts the vaccine wasn’t as effective as the propaganda said, we’re receiving calls for mandatory vaccination and persecution of the unvaccinated from precisely the same people who told us we needed to have a war in Mesopotamia and totalitarian surveillance state. David Frum has literally never been correct about anything, and the fact that this ridiculous, sinister neocon lizard is still taken seriously is in itself completely discrediting of “the establishment.” Since deplatforming and un-personing is now a fashionable way of dealing with sources of harmful “misinformation,” if anyone is deserving of this, it is David Frum, whose ideas have literally cost the US trillions of dollars, tens of thousands of lives, and sown chaos in large swathes of the world and caused 800,000 violent deaths. You could run a pretty good public policy institute by asking Frum what he thinks, and then suggesting the country do the opposite. For certain, Frum has done vastly more harm in the world with their actual misinformation than people like the Alex Jones.
  3. Vaccines: dangers. These are unquestionably the most dangerous vaccines fielded for mass consumption for decades; there’s been around 10,000 directly attributed deaths in the US, and possibly more that didn’t get counted. There has been reasonable speculations that vaccinations may be as dangerous as the virus itself at the present levels of infection herd immunity. This is almost certainly true for younger people; now officially so as far as the UK government is concerned, and people who want to vaccinate your kids are doing so entirely out of political malice. It’s obvious now that there is some cross-immunity with other endemic coronaviruses. Unfortunately it doesn’t show up in antibodies; only in the T-cell immunity memory system. If there were a test for this, one could figure out who to give the somewhat shitty and dangerous vaccines to and leave everyone else alone.
    Oh yeah, in case you need more things to worry about, it’s entirely possible the present generation of vaccines cause something called antibody dependent enhancement, making you more likely to die if you get a wuhan-lung butter infection on some time scale (remember, everything here is a time series process). They claim this hasn’t happened, but it’s still pretty early, and I’m virtually certain that a statistician who found early evidence of it would have a hard time informing people about it, because censorship is the order of the day. FWIIW I am tracking both things, and so far it hasn’t showed up in the overall mortality statistics.
  4. Lab Leak Hypothesis. It was declared definitively that only schizos and Russian influence agents would believe the insane and silly idea that the Wuhan coof might have come from a Wuhan biological warfare laboratory, and it was obviously some Chinese guy eating a bat sandwich which gifted the world with this fun new disease. Unfortunately, the guy who originally made this statement was deeply involved in US funded research on coronaviruses in Wuhan, as was the dipshit who told us AIDS might be airborne in the 80s. This is a pattern  which repeats itself a lot; the guilty more or less returning to the scene of the crime. Nick Wade is a freaking hero for bringing this out of 4chan where it was first noticed and in to public debate, and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists deserves a lot of credit for being the first mainstream institution to give the article air.  This, of course, could also be wrong; other people point out that enemies of the US were hit particularly hard by the virums…. and afterall, our people were funding the Wuhan lab. Could have been a deliberate release by US neocon types.  It’s not like the US never did such a thing before. I suppose it could also have been a bat sandwich. None the less, if the “experts” got their way, this wouldn’t be under consideration; and it is of supreme importance that people get to the bottom of it and prevent it from happening again, whatever the origin was.
  5. Immunity syndrome. Locking people up and masking them for a year and a half has consequences. All the masking and social distancing means you didn’t get your usual amount of viruses living in your respiratory tract. New Zealand, for example, has a weird outbreak of something called respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).  Israel has had an unprecedented outbreak of summer colds, RSV and flu now that they’re back to “normal.” We have no idea how this will play out; the immune system is pretty weird, and people don’t realize the human lung has a biome; an ecology, just like the little buggers that live in your intestines. Remember, Polio was basically caused by keeping babies clean; it was a common human virus, but babies all were infected with it before their nervous systems could be damaged by it. Once they stopped being infected in early infancy, the full horror of the disease became apparent. Something like this could easily happen, and it hasn’t been considered by official “experts” at all.
  6. Muh variants. They keep saying Delta is more dangerous to young people. Except the data says it isn’t. Maybe some day data will come out saying the delta variant is more dangerous, but it sure looks like it’s less dangerous to me. It is apparently slightly more transmissible, but that’s not the same as “more deadly.” That’s kind of how evolution works; of course the dominant strain will be more transmissible and less debilitating.

Fun hatefacts <tm>: the CDC’s figures for total deaths appear to be accurate. The number of deaths they attribute to corona-chan is approximately equal to the number of excess deaths during the time of the ‘rona. Kudos to the little guys working on these numbers at the CDC; statistical lions led by donkeys. Schizos; no denying it, you can’t hide dead bodies. Of course, most of them were, well, old and fragile. Over 65s have a 1/20 risk of death if they catch the Wuhan flu. Of course, they have about the same chance of death in a given year period, in the absence of something like corona-chan. Being old radically increases your chance of dying. I know it’s hard for some of you to deal with, but it’s a fact. FWIIW, if you’re a 30 year old man, you have a 1/2000 chance of dropping dead of ‘rona if you catch it, or, like, a 1/1200 chance of dropping dead this year from being a 30 year old man (your long term probability of death is 1/1 BTW). Women have it easier of course; both of ‘rona and of being alive.

The technocratic managerial state, the main western governmental system since 1945, has failed. It’s not a big surprise, as most of the people involved in it these days are nothing like bloody minded and competent Glen Seaborg tier technocrats who actually practice scientific thought. They’re just regime apparatchiks, generally fourth rate intellects and personalities whose spiritual level is somewhere between dishonest clerk and agricultural slave. They’re sleazy dimwit ninnies role-playing as learned wizards. This is the West’s Chernobyl moment for this manner of technocrat. These are people so weak, cowardly and generally useless, they can’t abide being contradicted on the freaking internet. For all the caterwauling about “misinformation” -most of it seems to come from the self-proclaimed “experts” and their human soybean fans and hysterical enablers. Even if those clowns started machine gunning critics like the Soviet apparatchiks they resemble, this is still how they look to the narrow aristocracy of sensible people:

Muh wub science bubbleheads getting 5 different vaccines to protext themselves from death, bleaching their groceries and wearing masks by themselves in an automobile make voodoo adherents look sensible. The fact that large swathes of the population has no respect for the clodpated  numskulls making the decisions is as predictable as ballistics; nobody should -they’ve been wrong about virtually everything. The fact that all these tittering doofuses can do in response is … become more authoritarian probably means their time in power is coming to an ignominious end. Whipping up twitter mobs to, like shout down the actual scientists thinking about the problem is not as they say, a sustainable system for alleged technocrats. Much as I’d love to see a few of them hanging from the guts of news reporters, pour encourager les autres, depriving them of their pensions and forcing them to get jobs at the Apple genius bar would probably hurt them more. If you really want people to “believe the experts” the “experts” could try being correct more often, and admitting their numerous and egregious failures.  People with power should be held accountable, and they certainly shouldn’t be applying censorship when they’ve proved they have no fucking idea what they’re talking about.

 

 

 

Tierney scooped me, more or less, but his thing isn’t a cool list like mine:
https://www.city-journal.org/panic-pandemic?wallit_nosession=1

“Whatever the pandemic’s origin, the response to it is the worst mistake in the history of the public-health profession”

Historical fuck up:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200918-the-fiasco-of-the-us-swine-flu-affair-of-1976
https://www.history.com/news/swine-flu-rush-vaccine-election-year-1976

TLDR from bodybuilder chad a year ago:

Edit add: I keep forgetting to mention it, but animal reservoirs (cats, rats, birds; even deer) are probably driving a lot of this, and probably invalidates leaky vaccines as a strategy.

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  1. whodis said, on August 12, 2021 at 8:32 pm

    kay, I’ll bite – at least on a few of these points:

    1.2 Yup, this take is basically right. Two obvious points to add though: (a) fatality rates increase a lot in places where ICU space ran out (e.g. early outbreaks in Italy and Spain where they ran out of respirators and medical oxygen); (b) there are negative affects that are non-fatal.

    1.3 Every front line doctor I know from most parts of the country were not able to get enough (or any) N95’s to use at work for a lot of 2020, and in some cases not enough surgical masks (which are pretty useless in that context, but slightly better than nothing). I don’t know what the ethics are for people with public influence to lie in order to not exacerbate the shortage of masks for docs, but I’m more or less okay with that. What I think is idiotic is that we had not continued to subsidize US production of N95’s (canceled government orders that kept factories open); a lot of then N95’s I’m seeing in hospitals are now US made since Chinese production/export seems like it hasn’t ramped up enough to fill US demand.

    1.7 Fuck these guys. Also, what an embarrassment to everyone out there making a living off of modeling…

    1.8 One obvious think to point out is that most countries that had a “lock down”, especially every state in the US, did not really had a lock down. Everyone was basically free to move around without any restriction; most “lock downs” basically mean closing down bars and movie theaters. You are right that Sweden and Japan never had official lockdowns, but at least for Japan which I know a bit about, people had common sense and did a lot more to change their behavior than anywhere in the US ever was at any point under “lock down”. Also, I would point out that Wuhan itself had a pretty extreme lockdown (killing pets, welding doors shut on apartment buildings, etc.) which seemed to work pretty well at stopping spread. I’m not saying I care for authoritarianism, but just pointing out the inconvenient example. You mention it, but it seems like restriction on air travel on islands (Taiwan, New Zealand) worked pretty well (until the delta variant at least).

    1.10 Many of those make-shift ventilators were the wrong type of ventilator that would not be useful for keeping severe covid patients alive. But ventilators fucking work – those patients are already on full O2. Ventilators, by the way, are really fiddly and difficult to adjust properly, but they do keep you alive when you can’t breath for yourself.

    1.11 You must not be close to any ER docs who live in cities – it was more than just a bit busy ffs. There were several times last year where hospitals in hot spots in the US started triaging patients (i.e. deciding that one patient was going to die anyway and giving up their ventilator to someone else more likely to survive with it). That said, I don’t think anywhere in the US outside of NYC reached a point close to what we saw in Italy and Spain, and there were many places where things didn’t get that bad, but it was definitely not just busy within distribution of normal variation in most big cities.

    1.12 This honestly should be criminally prosecuted.

    1.14 There was data and papers on this in March 2020 – I didn’t realize this was controversial.

    1.15 Maybe you know more than I do about this since I haven’t analyzed the empirical data, but the theory for giving vaccines to convalescent patients is that the vaccine contains an antigen that is highly likely to be conserved across variants of the virus (I believe in this case the spike protein), thus triggering your immune system to create antibodies that target that antigen. Convalescent immunity may cause your body to select for antibodies that target this, but your immune system may also select antibodies that target a different part of the virus that is not as likely to conserved. The therapeutic value of vxing a convalescent person over someone with no exposure is obviously less, but it seems like the downsides of a second infection probably still make it worth it individually (from the perspective of public health the tradeoff seems pretty clearly in favor).

    1.16 Fuck if I know the right answer to this, but I’d point out that Israeli high schools caused a lot of the spread there before the vaccines were widely administered. Also, child MIS a month or two after getting over the infection is rare on a population level, but we saw a pretty large number of these in younger kids.

    1.18 Overall this is right, but over 2/3 of the US population is overweight/obese, and if you add to that kids under 1yo, adults over 65, and people with diabetes/respiratory/immune issues, that covers a pretty large percent of the US who have a significant comorbidity. We also personally know several examples of patients, and even a few coworkers, who were in their 20s and 30s, fit, with no significant comorbidities, were triathletes in one case, and died from covid. Obviously rare, but I don’t know, we saw this can happen.

    1.19 I don’t know about any of this shit, but I think most people would be better off adopting epistemic helplessness as a strategy when evaluating things they don’t have any expertise in. That might especially apply to physicists evaluating medical treatments. And that’s even after you point out all the examples that medical researchers were total boneheads about some shit – I know just as many random examples of this and I still think most people are better off on average listening to their doctor.

    1.23 Okay, the comparisons are bogus, but delta is much more contagious than the original strain and there is danger from relying on procedures that worked to contain spread of the original strain not working to contain the delta variant. Just ask anyone who follows news in Taiwan.

    2.1 The vaccines are definitely not 95% effective against delta. The real number as best as I can tell from recent stuff is 50-80%, but the studies for this tend to be bad at cohorting the time since 2nd dose of vaccine. I’m seeing a reasonable amount of circumstantial evidence where vaccine efficacy decreasing significantly over a ~3-6mo horizon explains a lot of data. Also, from my personal network of direct people I know, I think there is statistical significance that for this highly biased sample of the world, vaccinated people are coming down with covid at a high rate now than they were at any point last year.

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 13, 2021 at 12:27 pm

      1.2a: citations definitely needed; places with no iatrogenic ICU (Africa, former Soviet) did better
      1.2b: I keep hearing this, and other than clear examples of hysteria, and the possibility it resets your Epstein Barr virums barometer, there’s precious little evidence of it. This sort of vague bullshit isn’t helping; unless you can point to something real, it’s just people being crazy.

      1.3: Nobody bought this allegedly “noble lie” at the time, and “the establishment” basically destroyed any remaining credibility by attempting this. All they had to do is say “donate your masks to the local ICU.” Oh yeah, and stop with the “these masks are out of date” or “these masks are K95 not N95” preening regulatory bullshit which was the real problem at the time. There were plenty of N95s available, which were perfectly adequate, but past the useless expiration date some planned obsolescence goon put on them.

      1.8: you are engaging in revisionist history. This is not allow.

      1.10: no, the vents actually killed people, and again, it was mostly regulatory bullshit venting people who didn’t need it because that’s what muh regulations said to do. Lots of people were ambulatory with oxygen levels that muh regulations said required immediate intubation. Ambulatory people means, to me at least, “not really that sick” regardless of what your dumb rule book says.

      1.11: the actual data are available in a link I helpfully provided above. If you want anecdotes: I had the ‘rona and all it did was give me the shits.

      1.15: that’s an interesting hypothesis, or Pfizer marketing attempt, but the actual IRL data says you’re vastly more immune to the ‘rona from, you know, actually having it and letting the immune system do its job. Zero evidence that getting a jab after you were sick helps you at all, and some evidence it might hurt you.

      1.18: I can’t believe you’re bringing up such anecdotes, but I’ll play: triathletes are basically ridiculously immunocompromised. There were young (often gay) sterons bros dying of it as well; same reason. These are completely unhelpful anecdotes, feeding the mass hysteria. Please compare and contrast to the number of people who die of OC43, HKU1, 229E, NL63 or the flu in a given year. Viral pneumonia kills lots of people in the prime of life every year; almost happened to a buddy of mine 10 years ago. Ultimately he lived, though he acquired an ex-wife in the process who probably makes him wish he hadn’t. Anecdotes like this are just that: anecdotes. Being honest about the statistical reality of who gets sick and dies (basically, olds and people two cheeseburgers from a heart attack) would be more helpful.

      1.19: I am not allow. I used to teach medical students at a top-10 school; they suck at the scientific method (which is fine, that’s not really needed, but it makes me take their pronunciamentoes about reality about as seriously as advice from an average personal trainer in the gym). There are also a lot of different doctors with a lot of different opinions. FWIIW after a long search, I have a pretty good doctor; he might even be smarter than me about doctor stuff.

      1.23: You can’t just “OK but” me on this one, brah. They lied; lying is bad, if only because even stupid people can see through it and never trust the authorities again. That’s the point in writing all this down. Delta may be more or less infectious; it may simply be winning the survival of the fittest virus game, but it’s nowhere near what chickenpox is. Factors of 10 considered non-trivial. It’s one thing to lie to a patient who has a 0% chance of recovery; you can’t consistently lie to an entire society (which includes people like me who write things down) and expect people to trust you any more.

      2.1: You appear to be in the Kübler-Ross bargaining stage; correct me if I’m wrong. All the things you wrote are basically “the vaccines don’t work.” Who ever heard of a “vaccine” (a dangerous one at that) which works on a 3 month time scale? I hope it’s not true, and it’s far from definitive that they don’t work, but the evidence is piling up on the wrong side of the scale, even as the public health authorities double down on their totalitarian efforts to remove the control group of people who don’t think the risk-reward profile looks good to them.

      • whodis said, on August 13, 2021 at 5:39 pm

        Thanks for the detailed response – I enjoy reading your stuff and appreciate you engaging with rando morons like me.

        1.2 I don’t have the citations and agree they are needed, so I’ll concede the points although I’m not convinced who is right on either.

        1.3 You know what, you are totally right on this one. Cashing in on trust is difficult to recover from (part of why it’s hard to assume good faith on any of the stuff in your essay). Repeat game, better alternative strategies were available, etc.

        1.8 I don’t think this is revisionist – I remember in April or so last year looking at mobility data for cities in the US/Europe/Asia and you could obviously see mobility in the US affected by lockdown announcements, but it was pretty stark how the decrease in activity was very mild in most places in the US compared to the pretty dramatic changes in Europe and Asia. Maybe the data collection was biased or reflected artifacts of US geography/transportation or whatever. FWIW I also tried to make a single variable model to see if the US mobile data gave any signal about spread of the virus and got nothing. Yeah, it’s the sort of useless masturbatory exercise a lot of us did (I like a puzzle), and it’s a tricky problem since you would expect a delay between interventions and (any of the) measurements of infection and there are mixed effects from city-specific stuff (and I’m a moron), but that also supports your point that the lockdowns, at least how they went down in the US did nothing.

        1.10 Ventilators are tricky to adjust and monitor and if you fuck it up it probably can make things worse. A lot of those ICU’s were super busy and understaffed (i.e. very long shifts), so that probably made things worse. Yeah, docs mostly follow “algorithms” (flow charts) and I don’t know the clinical data that the decisions around intubation are based on, so maybe the scenario you’re talking about they got wrong. For covid, they probably didn’t have a ton of data to base the protocol on at first and docs have a way of not being good about updating their practices based on the latest research (see more on that below). That said, I’d bet my house that whatever algorithm they use now for intubating covid patients on average saves more lives than not intubating by a stupidly wide margin. Anyway, I don’t have the data so *shrug*

        1.11 You might be right – the data you linked were daily snapshots and I am too lazy to scrape all the historical snapshots and pull them into a time series. ICUs tend to be surprisingly small, but that also meant that hospitals were able to flex capacity a reasonable amount by converting other resources. For example, I live in a major city and I know they closed down the main PICU that covered the city (and quite a bit of the surrounding states also actually) and used it for adults to scale up (note you can’t use most PICU equipment on adults for obvious reasons, so this was mostly about space). They also canceled/delayed a lot of medical procedures that would have taken up beds (not just elective stuff, but anything where the harm from delaying the procedure was less than the risk of getting covid at the hospital; if you are over 65 or sick already, the risk from covid is pretty high). Anyway, again, I don’t have the data, so maybe I’m full of shit, but inside those capacity numbers are a lot of unusual things that happened to make sure people crashing in ambulances had a place to go.

        1.15 Maybe my friends at Pfizer came up with that one lol, but it does make sense based on the biology. Also, it is your “immune system doing its job” when it reacts to the vaccine. Again, I don’t have a citation, and I can think of mechanisms that would make convalescent immunity more robust, so I might be full of shit as usual.

        1.18 Point taken, anecdotes are shit. The other point remains though that a large majority of the US has at least one comorbidity.

        1.19 Yeah, docs generally suck at science. They also generally can’t evaluate primary research (although many think they can). Also, most practicing docs that publish clinical papers are bad at science. All of this also goes for the docs at what are pretty widely considered the best hospitals/universities in the country. That said, the docs that train in order to primarily do research (and go on to run labs) are a totally different class of people and typically don’t suffer from any of these issues and are generally quite good at science in all the ways you would expect from researchers. My general impression is that the way modern medicine improves over time is that (more-or-less) the run of the mill docs who have no business reading papers (and would probably do more harm than good if they did) follow algorithms and protocols that are set and updated by the docs that are much better at science than them. Like all academics, there are bozos and idiots who are politically influential and produce and promote flawed research that sets the protocols in a way that is bad (and the harm from this is amplified quite significantly). That said, I’d generally take those standard practices over the random opinion of 95% of docs. There are rare practicing docs that really are good at evaluating science, and if you’ve found one then you are lucky and getting the benefit of the latest data – particularly helpful for newly emerging stuff like covid or delta.

        I should note that other academic fields are surprisingly full of people who are bad at science. Over a decade ago, before there were good resources to prep for or see past interview questions, I interviewed hundreds of PhD students, many from top research institutes (mostly physics, applied physics, and acm folks, but quite a bit of everything really) for some modeling jobs, and I’d say 50% of them could not design a very simple prospective randomized controlled experiment (something I would view as pretty fundamental to being a researcher/scientist). Maybe it’s just selection bias for folks who would be talking to a moron like me, but I think it’s generally harder than I would have expected to find people who are good at science among scientists. [Btw, 100% of folks from quant finance (industry not academics) got this question easily].

        1.23 Yeah – same as (1.3) above.

        2.1 Lol, maybe. The suggestion that we should all be sick for 1% of our life every year from taking a vx booster every 6 months seems crazy – a much higher cost than to society than the flu vx. Even if that’s just for 65yo+ and 2+ comorbid folks, that’s a big cost. Large populations of vaccinated folks mixed with unvaccinated folks with a large number of total people infected seems like ideal conditions for selecting for vx resistant strains, so it seems pretty certain to me that that’s going to happen in the next year.

        2.4 I forgot to mention this before: I think almost all the intentional lab leak hypotheses are an utter waste of time, but I would point out one geopolitical outcome that was a consequence of the pandemic – China’s successful takeover of HK was made possible or at least went a lot more smoothly as a result of the covid. Seems just opportunistic rather than by design, but it’s worth pointing out.

        • Scott Locklin said, on August 13, 2021 at 5:56 pm

          2.4 is pretty interdasting idea. It is a sort of waste of time in that there’s nothing we can do about it for now, but now that things have (sort of) stablized, some effort should be made to prevent it happening again if it was an unintentional lab leak. Also hanging the people involved, assuming it was man made. And, guilty or not, Fauci for murdering all those gaybros in the 80s with AZT, and because I’m sick of looking at the little weasel.

          1.19 -when I graduated I figured my phd in physics was basically the 21st century bachelors degree. Now I don’t even rate it that high; I consider it an anti-credential at this point. I’d rather take some kid who knows calculus and teach them what I’ve learned about how statistics works. Applied math people are still OK as long as there are no neural nets involved. Quants are a sort of scientific aristocracy in many ways; the best only get to eat what they kill.

          • Anonymous said, on August 17, 2021 at 2:06 am

            I’m one of those kids who’s been dealing with neural net “AI” at work recently, and it sucks. I’m looking to build a foundation in statistics so I can avoid getting lost in all the newfangled stuff.

            What books would you recommend?

            • Scott Locklin said, on August 17, 2021 at 9:57 am

              I don’t have a book recommendation; they all suck. Best ones do stuff like tell you where models break down; Kennedy’s a guide to econometrics isn’t bad, except it’s a little beyond “statistics.” Look at how statistical tests and models work to the point of coding your own up, compare them to each other and use your own test data sets to figure out what the strengths and weaknesses are. Same story for everything else. You probably use Python; I have no idea what stats packages for that are, but R has lots of great little examples and data sets built in.

              • Igor Bukanov said, on August 17, 2021 at 1:47 pm

                What is your opinion of “Probability Theory: The Logic of Science” by E. T. Jaynes?

                • Scott Locklin said, on August 17, 2021 at 1:58 pm

                  Great book. Not a book I’d give to a journeyman statistician though. Not much of it is real actionable other than “use bootstrapping when appropriate.”

                  Most people need advice on when and how to do a t-test, or how not to foot-gun themselves with linear regression, or Bonferroni corrections.

              • Anonymous said, on August 19, 2021 at 2:27 am

                Python stats libraries have weird OOP design.

                I had to use RCppEigen for a project a while back, so I should have a version of R lying around somewhere. I’ve always heard nice things about the stats packages (and ggplot) when it comes to R. Would be interesting to revisit R as a study tool for statistics.

              • streamfortyseven said, on August 29, 2021 at 11:39 pm

                Have a look at Lubos Motl’s weblog – https://motls.blogspot.com/2021/08/studies-indicating-that-covid-survivors.html#more – Motl is a Czech theoretical physics guy who makes a lot of trenchant comments about this event.

          • Sylvia Gibson said, on August 21, 2021 at 2:59 pm

            I hated statistics & did not advance to calculus as my siblings with their slide rules did, perhaps because numbers and I don’t get along.

            I remember well the fiasco of AZT and Fauci. The only words he has spoken that I can agree with was when he stated that “masks may catch a droplet, they won’t protect you”, (Paraphrasing). He and his minions have no credibility.

            I have never worked in the ICU, I have cared for patients on vents in the home environment. Early on, I said they were killing people with the vents, along with all the drugs they have those patients on that suppresses respirations, diminishes the immune system, etc.

            There are many studies in the NIH that show nutritional deficiencies are a huge contributor to poor outcomes with this current flu. That is true with any disease/illness/injury. The studies from last year, regarding Vitamin D were showing a correlation with low levels and poor outcomes. The standard diet of most Americans is deplorable. I am a retired RN, not a dietician. Here is a Swiss study:

            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7987506/

            Since the ‘powers that be’ are pushing 6 month boosters, it tells me their shots are faulty at best. Natural immunity is best and usually strongest.

            I agree with most all of what you have said. Thank you for putting this information in order.

        • streamfortyseven said, on August 29, 2021 at 11:48 pm

          As to point 1.15, it turns out that the vaccines are designed to produce antibodies to the receptor binding domain on the S1 subunit of the spike protein. Details here – https://medium.com/gigaohm-biological/5-concerns-about-sars-cov2-biology-a-call-to-pause-deliberate-and-revise-policy-493d18bdd826 – and if you want to watch an angry Apache neurobiologist give the “scientific establishment” plain hell, try this – https://www.twitch.tv/gigaohmbiological

          As to variants: The vaccines don’t confer immunity to viruses which can escape immunity, so those 50 percent of the US population fully vaccinated are back at square one. They’re vulnerable to variants which have been around since last October, and probably before. “An analysis of more than 50,000 real-life SARS-CoV-2 genomes isolated from patient samples further showed that most of these virus mutations were already circulating, albeit at very low levels in the infected human populations. These results show that SARS-CoV-2 can mutate its spike proteins to evade antibodies, and that these mutations are already present in some virus mutants circulating in the human population.” https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33112236/ That’s 50,000 variants, since October 2020. There are likely to be a lot more by now.

          It doesn’t matter if you’re vaccinated or not, if you don’t have natural T-cell immunity, you’re not going to be immune to new variants. The vaccines all focus on the spike protein, and there are – as of three months ago – over 1400 variants in the US alone which can evade the vaccines. What the vaccines do is filter out the variants for which they’re made, so if you get infected with a soup of alpha, wild type, and delta variants as the major components, plus hundreds of other mutations as minor components, the vaccines will filter out the alpha and wild type viruses, and leave the Delta and the rest alone – and *those* will reproduce. The dominant strain will then, by natural selection, be the Delta strain, accompanied by the rest, and those will be spread to others. So let’s say we get a Delta booster shot. That filters out the Delta variant, and leaves the rest, including (say) the Lambda variant alone to reproduce, and be spread. So we get a Lambda booster shot, and that takes care of the Lambda, but the Epsilon variant isn’t touched, so we need another booster. And this could continue on for 20 years, until the variant names fill the page. On the other hand, natural immunity rules – Emory University School of Medicine: https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(21)00203-2

          Another thing – these vaccines produce spike proteins which get out in the bloodstream, and they produce lots of bad effects – brain fog, myocarditis, inflammation in blood vessels, blood clots, and so on. My bet is that the effects of periodic injections of spike protein-producing mRNA will have cumulative effects, so that mortality from side effects will increase over time. The vaccines are a dead end (excuse the pun).

          OK, that should be enough. Maybe you should talk with Jimmy Dore sometime… Your article was excellent.

          • Raul Miller said, on August 30, 2021 at 5:10 pm

            That story does not account for why vaccinated people are not dying from the delta variant anywhere near the rate that unvaccinated people are dying from it.

    • gbell12 said, on August 16, 2021 at 10:10 pm

      “Epistemic helplessness” – thanks for that new concept.

      Three practical problems with it:

      1) It’s not clear to whom you should give yourself up to. International organizations, federal ones, state ones, professional groups (how big?), individuals?

      2) Once you pick a level, which of competitors at that level? Which GP? There will be charlatans, incompetents, and opposing opinions, so you still have to learn a minimum amount about every important field just to be able to select. I’ve BS-detected financial advisors (most), doctors, and accountants. That’s allowed me to pick the best one, and only then hand over my decision making.

      3) There are times of madness or mass corruption in history where zagging is very self-preservative because the usual fonts of wisdom are spewing dangerous stuff, and giving up on knowledge-gathering and decision-making means you have no chance of detecting when those are happening.

      • thisguy said, on August 31, 2021 at 4:12 pm

        If the world was more sane most of us would of learned, by the time that we were adults, that there is really nobody in charge.

        And out of the people who pretend to be in charge they are made up of almost entirely incompetents, psychopaths, and charlatans. Those are not mutually exclusive groups either. There are always going to be a small handful of competent and highly intelligent people mixed in there, but they are going to be far fewer in number then in the general population. There is certainly a self-selecting quality to the sort of people whose life ambitions are to tell other people what to do.

        So the only thing we can do is only listen to people who face real consequences if their ideas turn out to be wrong.

        Like the guy that designed the bullet proof vest and went around demonstrating it by being shot at. Or the guy that jumped out of the Eiffel tower with a wingsuite in 1912.

        Those are the sorts of people you should pay attention to. And you can tell if they are right or wrong by the corpses they leave behind.

        The people you should ignore are the ones that are isolated from consequences of their directions. For example: if the guy is guaranteed a pension regardless of how many people they lead to their deaths then that is the guy that should be ignored. He may be right or he may be wrong. It just means the odds of being right is not in his favor.

        • Raul Miller said, on August 31, 2021 at 7:31 pm

          Individual responsibility is a thing.

          But so is group action.

          That said, a problem we are facing, currently, is a group failure mode. (I’m talking about the efficient market hypothesis, the decades of laws and regulations influenced by that hypothesis, the legions of business managers trained based on that hypothesis, and the mathematical implausibility of that hypothesis. That said, this will not be the first time in history that people have gone off in the wrong direction, en masse. It’s just our time in history.)

          There’s also the pandemic, of course, and the obesity epidemic and the replication crisis, and… so on…

          Anyways, figuring out which way is up seems like kind of an issue right now. And, the people in charge have to both rely on the flawed systems that are in place and also take action to let (and encourage) people to fix things. While people are breaking things, and partially failing, in large numbers.

          It’s not pretty.

          • gbell12 said, on September 1, 2021 at 10:19 pm

            @thisguy and @Raul – my current solution is to listen to the consensus of experts. Loaded words, but I don’t see an alternative.

            And, of course, ignore our mis-leaders who are usually psychopaths, or at the very least, bought.

            We’re effectively ignorant in every field that’s not ours, but it’s easy to deceive ourselves that we’re not. The internet helps enormously with this – both in the accessibility of information and in the aggregation of like-ignorants into echo chambers.

            To experience the truth of this, just listen to someone talk about your field who doesn’t know what they’re talking about. You can tell right away, but you know they’d sound intelligent to a normie.

            • Raul Miller said, on September 1, 2021 at 10:55 pm

              In my field (computer programming), I have often had reason to believe that even the experts are full of it.

              (Of course, I have also often expressed certainty about issues that, on reflection, was invalid. And, I have often enough bought into popular ideas that were ill-conceived. Still, sometimes I am amazed that anything works.)

  2. Ping O'Reilly said, on August 12, 2021 at 9:30 pm

    In before 800 comments.

    No one before 2020 thought the real danger of a pandemic would stem from the ubiquitous physical, emotional, spiritual, and organizational rot that’s left us totally unable to cope with a relatively minor tragedy. It seems silly in hindsight to have given much thought to Ebola, supersmallpox or whatever, when a particularly bad and idiosyncratic flu is all it took. Although I have to assume that every government on Earth is now keenly interested in bioweapons if they weren’t already.

  3. Raul Miller said, on August 12, 2021 at 11:29 pm

    Last I looked it up (about a month ago), the total number of deaths after being vaccinated was about 6000 for the USA. So I am wondering where you get 10,000 deaths being directly attributable to the vaccine.

    Generally speaking (since life expectancy in this country is less than 100 years) we should expect a bit over 1% of the population to die every year (over 3 million per year or over 250k/month), which makes direct attribution of cause of death a rather … interesting … subject. Especially for something like the vaccine which has been administered to a sizable fraction of the population.

    So… anyways… I’m curious about where you got that particular number, and I am wondering how seriously I should take it.

    • Craig Carr said, on August 13, 2021 at 1:15 am

      Yeah, that jumped out at me too. You’d think that would be, like, a thing.

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 13, 2021 at 5:00 am

      VAERS. They revised the figure downward later (I’ve been compiling this for weeks). I’m sure there was no political fuckery involved.

      The Covid deaths were pretty unambiguous in the overall deaths data. If the vaccines are as dangerous as some of the tin helmet brigade claim they ultimately will be, it will show up in overall deaths for sure. If they’re less dangerous than covid and cause CVD, that will easily show up in linear regression models…. a few years from now.

  4. gbell12 said, on August 12, 2021 at 11:33 pm

    Scott, thanks for compiling all that – clearly a lot of work. Every day I’m having to make decisions about this “situation”, and I’m overly buffeted by whatever I’ve last read – partly do to character weakness, partly due to poor memory. So this essay helps a lot.

  5. gbell12 said, on August 12, 2021 at 11:53 pm

    Oh, and you can’t hear Beaker scream in that thumbnail, so here’s the real thing:

  6. Rickey said, on August 13, 2021 at 3:28 am

    Excellent list describing the current Wuflu situation. I can only add some personal observations. My intuition was that vitamin D is a critical factor since I read early during the outbreak that almost all of the critical patients were deficient in vitamin D. I made sure my multi vitamin had plenty of it and exposed myself to reasonable amounts of sun. Since I live in the deep South, I knew many persons who were textbook cases that should have died from the ‘rona (e.g. obese, in their 50’s to 70’s and some were diabetics) but they were only sick for several days and fully recovered. I one thing they had in common is that they were rednecks or coonasses who spent much time outside due to their jobs, or were retired and liked to spend time outside fishing, having crawfish boils, etc.

    I noticed at Wal-Mart, persons were ready to shank one another over toilet paper, bleach, hand sanitizer, Lysol, etc. but I never had problems purchasing fresh fruits and vegetables and the nutritional supplement section was always fully stocked. I was able to use the ignorance and panic porn to my advantage.

    Since I am a federal gubbermint employee, I noticed two things drive every high level civil servant or government official; accumulation of power/status and obtaining more manna every October. Truth is irrelevant, the agenda must be supported. I had reports and prepared statistics I submitted (nothing remotely related to the CDC)
    either completely dismissed or stripped of any items that did not support the message they were trying to convey. I know this because that is what they literally said to me. Remember that whenever you hear a “government expert” speak.

  7. Sacha said, on August 13, 2021 at 4:14 am

    Excellent survey Scott, thank you so much for providing alternative source of information. Keep on fighting the good fight.

  8. Cameron B said, on August 13, 2021 at 4:45 am

    Superb, Scott. You certainly are a man “sufficiently honest and disinterested to challenge the prevailing quacks”. I’ve often fantasized about a crowd-sourced website, similar to archive.org, where we can easily document the media’s brazen dishonesty. Maybe one of you nerds can make it happen.

  9. Hermes said, on August 13, 2021 at 5:20 am

    Scott, do you have any thoughts on possible side effects of the vaccine on fertility? It’s hard to tell or trust anything with the rampant censorship/politicization, and I think we’ve all at this point have heard at least anecdotal cases of miscarriage, VAERS(not that that necessarily means anything). CDC just went out of their way to say it’s recommended for pregnant women. Of course Bill Gates and others backing maximum vax have mass sterilization comments on record. Reason for initial skepticism maybe, so just wondering if you have any thoughts there or have seen data that would suggest one way or the other.

    And great write up, thank you.

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 13, 2021 at 5:49 am

      Seems unlikely. One of the things I considered adding but didn’t; early on in the epidemic, they were claiming the disease itself sterilized people, for example:
      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7171435/
      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8190708/

      Great marketing to get people to worry about something I guess.

    • William O. B'Livion said, on August 13, 2021 at 10:34 pm

      As much as I detest Mr. Gates for Windows, Office and other M$ products, he is being misrepresented by people who are fucking assholes.

      “First, we’ve got population. The world today has 6.8 billion people. That’s headed up to about nine billion. Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines, health care, reproductive health services, we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent. But there, we see an increase of about 1.3. ”

      Bill Gates is a dork. He has serious ethical issues when it comes to business, but he’s not stupid enough to say things like that.

      • Brendan Eich said, on August 13, 2021 at 11:41 pm

        He’s not that smart, either. Gates giving a lame version of the Kaya identity aside, we have:

        http://elreporterosf.com/does-bill-gates-endorse-death-panels-economical-euthanasia/

        and more to come, I hope.

        • maggette said, on August 19, 2021 at 2:34 pm

          Me stupid. I still don’t get it.

          IMHO there is no statistical reason to assume that Covid-19 is not deadly. It was all foggy in the beginning. But we have good and enough data now. Isn’t this borderline trivial now?

          The US may have degenerated into a 3rd world country. But they still can count dead bodies. Dead bodies don’t appear out of thin air or disappear (at least in relevant numbers). Dead people(all causes) is a solid statistic. I don’t care about tests or anything. Dead people. All causes.

          https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

          – “Yeah but people die every day”. Sure. They do. As clearly visible represented by the blue bars. Fat people. Cancer. Drug abuse. Age.

          But the Covid-19 people dying excess amount to an equivalent of one to five 9/11 attacks every week for a period of over 50 consecutive weeks? To me it is quite confusing how people can even try to debate that away?

          – “But more people die of X”. And? X being, drug abuse or car accidents. Most of these things don’t involve exponential growth, and R0 of 3.-6.

          – “But Ioannidis showed that the IFR is close to the common flue”.
          Ioannidis is an attention whore that somehow only publishes stuff that gets him attention. And it is easier to get attention if you are a contrarian. He did solid research that reduced the former hysterical levels of C-19 IFR. But his interpretation is intellectually dishonest at best. And here is why:

          If you go shopping, the amount of money you have to hand over the counter is not solely determined by the price per item…but also by the number of items in your shopping cart! In the same way the danger of Covid for a population is determined by the IFR and by the R0.

          For the same reason Ebola is a joke compared to Covid (measured in excess mortality it obviously is by a HUUUUGE margin) Covid is a joke compared to Polio.

          A combination of an IFR/CFR slightly above the common cold and R0 significantly higher than the common cold leads to an excess mortality like in a rough flue season….for a long time.

          And after one year of data IMHO you can compare countries. You can compress the time series in one single number. Excess dead.

          I think Occams Razor suggest that lock downs and tracing does work. Disciplined countries with social pressure (Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Norway..) performed way better other countries ( Germany, France, Austria). Countries that were liberal about that thing (either by rules or by the acceptance of rules by the population) performed very bad. US, Brazil and Sweden were quit awful.

          I think it is rather obvious. Covid-19 is dangerous. Not Polio. But sure as fuck NOT the common cold.

          • Scott Locklin said, on August 20, 2021 at 9:46 am

            I’m not sure who you’re replying to here. FWIIW South Korea and Japan never locked down any more than Sweden did. Some people argue Norway and Finland didn’t either. Either way, Sweden seems to be winning the long term game, and did well overall compared to lockdown countries.

            • maggette said, on August 20, 2021 at 9:58 am

              Sure. South-Korea didn’t need to lock down. They traced hard and locked down the infected and broke the transmission chains . As did Iceland. Or Taiwan and Singapore. IMHO that was the best way to do it. You don’t need lockdowns if people are sensible and responsible citizens.

              Maybe I need to be more clear: I am not sure if “lock downs” as a political measure work, as long as they are not enforced. Movement profiles by Apple, Google and Facebook are rather telling that in the US “lock-down” and “less contact” might not correlate.

              I am just saying: reducing contacts will help in a pandemic. I am pretty sure about that one.

              And like I said: my score is aggregated relative excess mortality. The Swedes will have a hard time to cover the ground they already lost.

              • Scott Locklin said, on August 20, 2021 at 11:38 am

                The Swedes already winning aggregated relative excess mortality; you can see it in the integral of the graphs above.

                Lock downs don’t work; the end. You’re talking about them in the same way communist enthusiasts say “well the real communism hasn’t been tried yet.” Yes if people magically don’t behave like people, but like little blips in a video game, or if you turn your society into a ridiculously totalitarian slave state, maybe grandpa or your fat cousin will live longer. I don’t think it’s worth it. It certainly wasn’t worth it destroying the world economy and transferring more wealth to oligarchs for the absolute zero benefits of the lockdowns we got.

                FWIIW a friend of mine went on vacation in Iceland in peak “contact tracing.” Your view of what happened there is …. imaginative. Same story with SK. The biggest change to Iceland was closing the bars early.

                • maggette said, on August 20, 2021 at 12:30 pm

                  Not sure if Sweden is winning. Sweden excess mortality relative to 100K citizens aggregated over the time of the pandemic is almost 10 times higher than Japan. If you factor in age and population density that is probably favorable for Sweden they sucked. And they also sucked more than their comparable counterparts. It is also 9 times worse than Norway.

                  “ridiculously totalitarian slave state, maybe grandpa or your fat cousin will live longer”
                  That is an moral argument based on your individual utility function. I have absolutely no problem if people would openly discuss that. That would be honest. An honest discussion about how many people we are accepting to die because we value other things higher. We do that all the time (drinking, alcohol….)

                  But I have the feeling all the things you and others write about how public opinion is wrong and how this shit isn’t dangerous and all that , is all a smoke screen to avoid the discussion and the true to honest statement: how many citizens we are willing to let die in excess.

                  The elephant in the room (US excess mortality) allows you to get a rough estimate about what is there in covid-19-excess mortality.

                  “FWIIW a friend of mine went on vacation in Iceland in peak “contact tracing.” Your view of what happened there is …. imaginative.”

                  With all due respect to your tourist friend, but I have friends who live and work there. In academia, Law Enforcement and as a teacher. Your friend being ignorant of the tracing efforts does not make them go away.

                  The wife of one of my former basketball pals volunteered to work in that hotel
                  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56412790

                  I know it triggers a lot of people hard….but a female green-party minister managed the crisis by shutting the fuck up and listening to experts. And there are 85% fully vaccinated now.

                  • Raul Miller said, on August 20, 2021 at 1:42 pm

                    That seems close to an important issue, but …

                    Everyone dies is part of the problem. So that issue could stand to be specified better.

                    Also, “changes in excess death rate” is … a relative issue. One thing that we’re really interested here (and in the death rate context) is life expectancy. Another thing is general fitness of the population (which can be characterized in a variety of ways).

                    But also relevant would be the fitness (including economics) of the institutions.

                    Anyways, one thing is for certain: there’s going to be issues worth being unhappy about. And, issues worth being unhappy about at a personal scale will often be different from issues worth being unhappy about at a national scale.

                    • Raul Miller said, on August 24, 2021 at 5:26 pm

                      I should clarify:

                      Life expectancy is a goal metric rather than an operational metric. It takes too long to be measured to be useful for most kinds of decision making,

                      Shorter term metrics (yearly, quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily, etc.) are more useful for many people. But the issues which make them easier to measure also make them easier to distort.

                      But that brings up another issue which is cross checking. For a metric to be valid and remain valid you have to have ways of cross checking its accuracy. For life expectancy you might use the age distributions available in demographics (for example), and you also might be looking at evidence from historical events, birth and death rates, and so on…

                      (And that brings yearly mortality numbers back into focus, of course.)

                  • Scott Locklin said, on August 20, 2021 at 4:12 pm

                    You can attempt to litigate all you want about this and that thing that may or may not have happened: Sweden won. Compared to Germany, which locked down, which Sweden is eminently comparable to: Sweden did about the same without ruining everyone’s lives for two years. That’s why I put both in the plot. They’re actually better off now because they have more people with immunity from actually being exposed to the virums. Millions of Swedes had normal lives in 2020 and 2021. Tens of millions of German lives and livelihoods were ruined; yours wasn’t because you work out of your house, but society isn’t composed of remote tech workers, despite their disproportionate political influence.

                    Japan, which also didn’t lock down, also did well; they’re also Japan, and they do better than everyone at everything. If your solution to problems is to do as Japan does, you have to start off by having a homogeneous population composed of Japanese people. I can only think of one country which had the foresight to be composed of Japanese people. I know it rustles your jimmies as you’ve decided that Sweden committed genocide on its own people, despite the numbers stating that, well, they really didn’t: it rustles the jimmies of everyone who tried to bullycide them into doing the same stupid things done by most of the other European countries. But they have decidedly won the argument. Good for the Swedes, and boo on the people who can’t accept THE SCIENCE.

                    Iceland, FWIIW: basically fully vaccinated now -highest case rates ever. Higher than at the peak of the epidemic last year, when they were still open for tourism and living fairly normal lives; so much for those vaunted experts. People haven’t started dropping dead yet -they have in Israel, which is also basically fully vaccinated. The Swedes made a more sane decision, and will probably reap the benefits of it for decades to come. By my analysis, and, FWIIW, the Icelandic authorities, everyone’s going to go the Sweden route whether we like it or not.

            • Igor Bukanov said, on August 20, 2021 at 10:38 am

              There was no government-imposed lockdown in Sweden, but there was a self-imposed lockdown there. Judging by m anecdotal evidence it was more effective than government-imposed one in Spain especially after the early 2020 lockdown there. Less anecdotal is that GDP in Sweden dropped more than Norway. Of cause part of it is due to the export from Sweden was more of high-tech and so was harmed more. Another part was a closure of the border with Norway. Norwegian traveling there to get cheaper food was a big thing. Still people in Sweden mostly followed governmental advise which was not much different than in Norway. Yet death totals per 100K in Sweden is 5 times more than in Norway.

              • Brendan Eich said, on August 21, 2021 at 8:50 pm

                Sweden had negative excess mortality. https://shahar-26393.medium.com/not-a-shred-of-doubt-sweden-was-right-32e6dab1f47a

                Not only did Sweden win, it’s still winning because natural immunity to full epitope of 29.9kb viral genome acquired by the recovered beats partial immunity from vaccine-translated 4.2kb Spike, never mind other problems with relying on leaky vaccines.

                • maggettethekraut said, on August 22, 2021 at 1:15 pm

                  That is utter nonsense and worst kind of data-jiu-jitsu.

                  Almost everybody looks at weekly data and/or z-scores on de-seasonalized and de-trended data. How I define a year is irrelevant when I look at weekly and monthly data.

                  Let’s rephrase it: find a way to define a “year” that makes Sweden a winner in Excess mortality.

                  And I stand by this fact: if scored by aggregated by excess deaths per 100K AND by absolute deahts per 100K since the beginning of the pandemic, Sweden is in no sensible way a winner when compared to Norway or Finland. It’s about 9 times worse. And it is 1.5 times worse than Germany.

                  Come on guys. Let’s stop pretending Sweden worked awesome if we take an Integral of dead people as a score. That’s denial

                  • Scott Locklin said, on August 26, 2021 at 9:56 am

                    You know, this kind of caterwauling is pretty rich coming from a guy who lives in a country with no highway speed limits. How many have been slaughtered because you people selfishly want to drive fast on the highway? For that matter, why have private ownership of automobiles at all? We can all be safe and lower the amount of carbon in the atmosphere by riding to the supermarket on donkeys.

                    Unlike the coronavirums, I actually know several people who have died because of the autobahn.

                  • Himuro Tatsuya said, on August 29, 2021 at 2:03 pm

                    Maggette, just let it go, it’s not worth it. Locklin is clearly an asshole crank who just called John Ioannidis, the biggest person in the eStAbLisHmEnT who said Covid is just like the flu (aka point number 1 on this blog), an “actual scientist” in this shitcake of a blogpost, who shouldn’t be subjected to the deadly torture of…(drumroll)…Twitter hate mobs, while making methodological errors in his papers that an elementary school student could spot.

                    As though Locklin and the rest of his anarcho-libertarian pals have engaged in extremely polite scientific discussion here. It was all fun and games when he was clowning non-entities like string theory and nanotech researchers, but Covid has exposed him as just as big a crank as them, if not bigger.

                    Btw Locklin, good job on pulling the 10,000 VAERS deaths number straight out of your ass (with no accompanying screencap or source link provided). And for not doing the extremely rigorous analysis of comparing long-term effects of COVID-19 (which you don’t know and can’t know yet) with the long-term effects of vaccines (which you also don’t know). Great masterpiece blogpost full of rigorous analysis.

                    • maggette said, on August 29, 2021 at 4:48 pm

                      No. Scott has a different opinion than I do, is combative in his responses and actually respects my bandwidth restrictions by sparing me of political-correct-politeness formulations and he gets to the point quite straight away.

                      He is using exaggeration as a tool quite a lot. People tend to get offended by it, instead of thinking about what he says,

                      I value discussions with him a lot and learned a lot from them. Talking to people who aren’t stupid (he isn’t) and share different views than I do are like sensor fusion. By construction, stuff that is ordinal to my information has by construction a higher entropy and works as diversification.

                      Back in dthe day people were able to have heated discussions without being butt-hurt.

                    • maggettethekraut said, on August 29, 2021 at 4:58 pm

                      No. Scott has a different opinion than I have. He is combative in his responses and uses exaggeration as a method a lot. People get offended by that instead of listening to whatt he has to say. I am not.

                      He respects my bandwidths restrictions and cuts to the chase.

                      I enjoy discussions with him and get a lot out of them.

                      Discussing with people is like sensor fusion. Channels with ordinal priors and information to mine have a higher entropy and add more to diversification.

                      Discussing stuff with people who disagree with you is only pointless if you either are a 100% sure you are right or you are looking for some ego-boosting validation.

                      Neither of them apply in my case.

                      Hence for pureley egoistical reasons I won’t “Let go”.

                      You should try that too. It’s fun:).

                    • maggettethekraut said, on August 29, 2021 at 5:03 pm

                      Obviously something went wrong while saving my response. So a bit of redundancy 🙂

                    • Scott Locklin said, on August 29, 2021 at 8:06 pm

                      As usual, childish murble-wurble dimwits such as yourself fail to understand this isn’t a Sophie’s choice situation: everyone short of shut ins and stylite monks (and possibly even them -still nobody talks about animal reservoirs) is getting Coronavirus. The Swedes realized it and figured locking themselves up for two years wouldn’t help much, just like everyone did in America in 1968 and 1957 when the country wasn’t run by human soybeans such as yourself.

                • Igor Bukanov said, on August 22, 2021 at 4:37 pm

                  The table is in so called flue years. Despite presence of the column 2021 the last data is only for 2020. So for 2020 it consists of data from October 2019 until September 2020. Effectively only 4 month of Covid is there. Yet despite contribution of only 4 months there is very unexpected jump up which in total bigger than the last 4 years even if it is still lower that earlier years. After that I totally lost interest is reading the article.

                  I did the same for Norway in the same flue years and although data for october 2019 — october 2021 is slightly higher than for the flue year 2019, they are lower than 2017 ot 2018. If one compares for Norway the data for spring for different years that covers the first and third waves of Covid here, then spring 2021 is the lowest and spring 2020 was lower than 2019, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pI1zXC-qb4SvSE5-MreBHuhJnXX3ibp8QtO1SQ92e84/edit?usp=sharing .

                • Igor Bukanov said, on August 23, 2021 at 7:18 am

                  Here for reference the monthly dearth for Sweden during 2000-2020 copied from the same database as that article claims, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1l1JtejJZiSLUfMiRyf91A6w4rOsim4boMejmpKjfDNg/edit?usp=sharing . You can clearly two very big spikes in April-May and November-December. In April 2020 the numbers were 10555. The second highest number for the whole 2000-2020 period was 8148 in 2002. In December 2020 the number was 10187. The second highest was 8797 again in 2002. In Norway there is no spikes at all and the number in fact significantly below average. And that second spike in Sweden was completely unexpected by epidemiologists there with the chief one apologizing that given the knowledge they should have done differently.

                  And I repeat the lockdown in Norway was soft and not much different from Sweden as people there mostly followed government advise. Unfortunately it is not known what contributed to this massive difference between countries. The speculations was that a ban on any big gatherings, ban on serving of alcohol in pubs/restaurants, closure of of cinemas and gyms, masks on public transport (with effects coming perhaps not from masks itself, but from changes in behavior due to personally wearing mask or seen other doing that) were enough either alone or each contributed enough to make the difference. But there are other speculations.

                  In any way, it is very hard to argue at this point that a soft lockdown as implemented by government and people in Norway and Denmark did nothing. So soft lockdowns in Scandinavia do work.

  10. SJ said, on August 13, 2021 at 6:38 am

    My college is going to require vaccination for all students no matter whether remote or present. I don’t know what to do about it. I’m going into my final year and I will probably be fucked if I get kicked out. I’m seeking a religious exemption but holy shit is the waiting (and knowledge of this looming over me) making my hair fall out. What do you think about this?

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 13, 2021 at 12:32 pm

      Well, plane tickets are pretty cheap; maybe take a year off and go hang out someplace where it’s hot if you’re worried about it.

      • SJ said, on August 14, 2021 at 5:12 am

        Except that when I return in a year the vaccine will be mandatory with no chance of exemptions. What, you think the “pandemic” is going to END?

        Re: Walt, any suggestions for someone who exists before these “alternatives” are obvious? I’m a “smart” guy, a college science type. My parents keep chattering to me about how they want to retire so bad, so soon.

        P.S. forgot my fake email so my avatar changed.

        • Scott Locklin said, on August 14, 2021 at 7:49 am

          Why come back in that case?

        • Walt said, on August 14, 2021 at 2:59 pm

          The “pandemic” is not going to end. Today they’re talking about the Lambda variant evading all immunity. Pfizer plans on you getting 1-2 booster jabs forever. There is a lot of money driving the vaccination campaigns in large Western countries, which is why Pfizer wants every living thing in Western countries jabbed the minute they come out of the womb.

          If you’re “smart,” you can learn business skills and a skilled trade and make more money while being your own boss. I’m not trying to idealize this but if your parents want to retire and “college” isn’t bringing the ROI it used to, you’re free to do something else. Many of us are middle-age guys who have seen the “tech” and “science” industries for what they are, so don’t feel like you have to do it because of your own expectations or your parents’. There is more than one way through life.

          BTW, I’ve been driven to the airport by cab drivers with advanced technical degrees and skills in teh former USSR. Much of what you do in life is out of your control whether you have the training or not.

    • Walt said, on August 13, 2021 at 4:47 pm

      It depends. Lots of big corporations are going to require it after FDA approval. If you’re going to graduate and work for one of them, you might be required to get one. The government knows this and has killed off many small businesses this year. The government also knows that college is the ticket to the few remaining middle class corporate jobs, so it has students over a barrel.

      I’m firmly in the camp that we need to find alternatives to college and corporate employment.

      Great post, Scott! Hey, are we becoming an echo chamber? haha

      • SJ said, on August 14, 2021 at 5:12 am

        See my reply to Scott above.

    • Kris said, on August 21, 2021 at 3:29 pm

      Just one more of the lovely “side effects” of this very unusual Gates/Fauci/CCP “wonder” drug…..no peace of mind!

      Why now the ultimate push of pushes so far…..all vaccinated by at least mid Sept (all military …..order by the obvious doofus at the top who is leaving American citizens to fend for themselves in Afghanistan)…..at the very moment when the events are pretty much showing that the “vaccine” has arrived at its past shelf life and ineffective for catching, spreading, or making anyone feel that much better than the day before taking it….even in the long run? Israel, the petri dish of the world to watch (beyond the simpletons in third world countries who tested fruits and got positive results) as one of the most vaccinated, (via threats of not getting the basics for survival if not willing), countries in the world w/ reports that can’t be hidden of around at least 80% new hospitalizations being of the fully vaccinated along with a few, so far, of the “boosted” third time around folks.

      So why not wait at least until the real flu season arrives to test those assumptions about that ADE effect….it’s only a couple of months extension. But hey….one other seeming novel idea…..why not have just used real animals as usual in those prior clinical trials so that by now the population of the duped could also have seen those results after being hit by the wild virus of some form…..logic tells you why that wasn’t done; no “warp speed”, etc. which has now been extended anyway for years;…..w/ the same past results of the “animals” dying???

      All of this current to-ing and fro-ing even by the best scientists out there, not really able to commit to any real warning off of the scared to taking the jab, as they all must wait for “meaningful” stats, only prolongs the time for the age old authors of the depopulation goal to force their weapon to their chosen “bottom feeders” in order to save more goodies for themselves. Now it’s developed beyond the ChiComs’ “one child only” policy and expanded to possibly knocking out the entire toddler population or at least maiming it while it develops.

      And…..not even getting into the projected 5G connection to any “novel” created lipid nano particle inserted wrappings! Perhaps why it actually IS so “novel”!!

  11. Ray said, on August 13, 2021 at 1:09 pm

    Hey Scott,

    I had ‘rona in June 2020 and fully recovered. However, it did suck for me. Sick, in bed, fever, body aches, and splitting headaches for 10 days, then lethargy and the general piss taken out of me / cloudy brain for months afterwards.

    I don’t want this shit twice. I haven’t taken the vax, and am having a hard time deciding if it’s something I should or should not do. I’m not necessarily afraid of tin foil hat crap, but if my natural immunity stemming from b-cells in bone marrow is just as good or better than getting a dose or two of the Pfizer, I’d rather just abstain.

    Your thoughts are appreciated as I’m taking an aggregate of people I consider geniuses and rolling with it.

    Appreciated,

    Ray

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 13, 2021 at 1:19 pm

      As I said above, people who had it have stronger immunity than people who just got a shot of Pfizer happy fun juice. I think “whodis” above is a real doctor and he has stated a plausible mechanism by which vaccines could “help” a person with natural immunity. But there’s zero evidence for this. You’ll probably get it again no matter what you do, assuming you live a long time.

      Life is full of risk; I was fucked up from the flu for years. Thought it was a permanent disability, but it went away after 8 years or so. FWIIW it was given to me by a plague doctor (he signs in sick sailors, certifying them free of lethal illness) on an airplane. I wouldn’t have gotten it if the mofo was wearing a mask; literally saw the droplet fly into my eyeball. Of course back then, mask-wearers were all considered lunatics.

      • Ray said, on August 20, 2021 at 1:42 pm

        Scott,

        I wanted to update you on this because I found this kind of interesting and I think you may as well. I recovered (fever subsided and was released from quarantine) in mid-June 2020.

        So yesterday I went and paid for a rapid antibody test at a local lab. They were giving them for free with blood donations here in Florida, but this ended June 30th for some reason. I still have both IgG and IgM antibodies more than 12 months after recovery.

        I’ve talked to a couple more people. The main argument I’m hearing for getting the vaccine after convalescence is that it gets your antibody titers up. I really want to make the right decision, as I’m sure most do on either side of this. Do you think this is a valid argument?

        Ray

        • Scott Locklin said, on August 20, 2021 at 4:36 pm

          Interesting result; I had no idea that the IgG and IgM antibodies would last that long (and I’m not aware of any literature demonstrating this possibility). If it were me, I’d wait for something better than what’s presently on tap. The Novavax approach looks safer than what’s presently available in the US. But it’s ultimately a personal decision.

          • Ray said, on August 20, 2021 at 5:07 pm

            The most I’ve seen is 8 months in a study, but that may be simply because enough studies haven’t been performed and completed. The only thing I can think of is that I had it again and didn’t have symptoms. I’ve definitely had some sick days since, but all were just malaise and afebrile.

            I am mostly in agreement with you. I have generalized anxiety so this shit is particularly difficult for some of us.

            Which panic attack do I want to have? Running around unvaxxed or shitty vax might kill me?

            I picked the wrong year to quit drinking.

            Ray

    • glife said, on August 13, 2021 at 5:01 pm

      sounds like not a very serious illness

  12. chiral3 said, on August 13, 2021 at 6:20 pm

    Shit Scott, I haven’t had the energy to do what you did here. I have to mathematize the implications of this – 1st, 2nd, or nth order – at work, so I am just tired of it. I can only assume that you tapped out at a point writing too.

    In a chapter of the book or blog I will never bother to write is the whole asymmetric risk preference thing. 1958 and its antigenic kissing cousin the 1968 are examples I bring up constantly. 1976 is also a great reference, but of course nobody will say (convincingly) that the measures ultimately killed more people than they helped, which may or may not be true. Certainly not for H2N3+H3N3, but maybe for swine. One thing that makes today different is that the whimsy of our fractured and disparate public policy is driven by one-sided anecdotes. To your point, nobody is dying, on average, and those that did had comorbidities. Further, we can’t ask questions like “did it come from a lab”, “were ventilators worse than let it ride”, and “what’s the marginal left tail from vax”. Given that nobody is willing to have a view, at least in the US, as to what is acceptable – we appear to approach this like everything these days, i.e., zero risk is the only acceptable risk – and I acknowledge that this is obviously much more serious than flu, both r0 and mortality, as measured by excess, but I think these are acceptable numbers today. Despite all the data lost, we have enough data to say “given r0, mobility, current case count, blah blah blah we have x cases, y hospitalization, and z deaths by region”. Decision making is ossified, as are roles and responsibilities.

    So many questions that will never get answered. Realizing this CoV is novel, it certainly did had a wide range of patient outcomes. Maybe given r0 and large N this is explained statistically, but we’ll never know. I got CoV19 from my wife. In my office working long hours for weeks on end with no contact with outside world and she gave it to me. I lost taste and smell, was dog tired, and had a sore throat. I biked twenty miles that day and went to bed early. My wife had more classic symptoms, as did my son. Yet I know an athletic guy aged 50 that croaked. I also know a 30 yo that died from the flu. These anecdotes don’t help but if ca 60% of the US is vaxxed, assume something slightly less than that already was sick, so maybe 70%-80% has been exposed, the remainder aren’t septuagenarians, than we should be lookin at p.a. death rates at or lower than flu. I can live with that. If you’re 80 years old plan accordingly or if you’re a fat diabetic slob put the Cheetos down and buy a bike.

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 13, 2021 at 8:03 pm

      >I haven’t had the energy to do what you did here

      Mostly rage TBH. I kept thinking, “ah, they’ll stop being stupid soon” and it never happened. So I started writing notes.

      • William O. B'Livion said, on August 13, 2021 at 10:40 pm

        The people at the top aren’t being stupid. They’re trying to take *all* the power.

        The people right below them aren’t being stupid. They’re sharing the power.

        The middle tier–people where I am–don’t have anything to fight with.

        The people at the bottom, they aren’t being stupid, they’re being tribal. Which is sort of stupid.

  13. Brutus said, on August 13, 2021 at 6:46 pm

    A few things I’ll add:
    14. There’s also evidence for cross-reactive immunity from tetanus shots. See https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.09.21257809v1, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3850361, and https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7695568/.
    16. I think closing the schools has forced a lot of parents to face just how bad the curriculum has become. I count it as one of the few silver linings we’ve had from the pandemic.
    19. To vitamin D and zinc, I’d also suggest selenium and humidity. (see https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-nutrition/article/selenium-and-viral-infection-are-there-lessons-for-covid19/BE3AC78D5C92725BE83C4E474ECBB548, https://www.isegoria.net/2007/12/study-shows-why-the-flu-likes-winter/, https://www.isegoria.net/2019/10/was-it-hand-hygiene-fragility-of-the-patients-or-room-cleaning-procedures/)

    2.1 I recently took a look at the 6 month Pfizer study. It’s badly done on the whole because they clearly chose to ignore asymptomatic cases and long covid, and also because they chose a non-representative population much healthier than the general public. It seems that the vax group had slightly more death than the control, due largely to cardiovascular type ailments. See https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1.full.pdf and https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1.supplementary-material. This is surprising when you consider that the disease the vaccine should protect against itself causes clots. According to my math, this was statistically significant.

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 13, 2021 at 8:23 pm

      Some interesting things there; for sure cold dry air in winter is a killer (and it’s totally something you can do something about). It also appears the rona is somehow “dose dependent” -meaning people who get a big lungfull of viral particles do worse. I remember the tetanus thing; people suspected tuberculosis shots using old fashioned live vaccines might also help (then several of the countries which still get such shots got very ill).

      Pfizer vax: I skimmed the original study and it sure looked like they only observed patients for a week or two after the second shot. Which seemed to be bullshit, but I was being paid to think about something else, other than fighting with a quarter trillion dollar 180 year old pharmaceutical company. And anyway I can understand why they might have been in a hurry. Your paper is new to me, but skimming it I do not see anything about deaths in vaccinated versus not. I’ve linked to other studies above which impute similar numbers in non elderly cohorts. Could go either way iterating over time. Or could have been bad studies.

      • Brutus said, on August 14, 2021 at 1:00 am

        Deaths were in the supplementary tables.

      • Mark said, on August 14, 2021 at 5:06 am

        Regarding cold dry air in winter as a killer, here in Florida we’re having a covid surge, and your comment leads met to suspect the impact of air conditioning. While it is hot and humid outside, inside my house is 73 and dry.

    • Brendan Eich said, on August 13, 2021 at 9:04 pm

      They also let the control arm get vaccinated, inexcusable.

    • Walt said, on August 14, 2021 at 4:51 am

      Thanks Brutus. The school closures combined with the death of St. Floyd of Fentanyl inducing school districts to implement CRT-based curriculums convinced many parents how bad the schools have become. They could ignore the contempt the public schools had for them before, but not now.

      Here are some good appraisals of the Pfizer 6 month study. Summary: it sucked.
      https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/pfizer-safety-and-efficacy-6-month

  14. Raul Miller said, on August 13, 2021 at 7:39 pm

    So… after thinking about this:

    It’s absolutely the case that we should expect that the pandemic roughly follows a logistic curve. If life were simple, it would be a smooth curve with half the victims dying while the infection rate was increasing and half the victims dying while the infection rate was decreasing.

    But life is not simple, and rate of transmission depends not only on the disease itself but on mechanical issues like exposure. And, infection takes some amount of time (an issue difficult to study), and presumably at some level a high viral exposure has a higher chance of infection than a low viral exposure.

    So… sparsely populated areas would tend to have lower transmission rates than densely populated areas. (And staying at home gives a similar effect, Masks and social distancing also, though a six foot separation and mask wearing would not be as effective as a sixty foot separation and a shut door.)

    And then there’s nutritional issues, fitness issues, chronic disease issues, etc. etc.

    And, if we’re using death rate as a metric, there’s quality of care issues and availability of hospital support issues.

    Anyways… it’s complicated, and we like to oversimplify things (sort of out of necessity), and people need to eat and so on and so forth…

    Sometimes there just aren’t any good answers.

    • William O. B'Livion said, on August 13, 2021 at 10:46 pm

      If the virus can be transmitted through aerosol then *most* of the masks people are wearing are worse than useless.

      If it can’t be, then 3 feet is sufficient.

        • William O. B'Livion said, on August 14, 2021 at 6:57 pm

          I hadn’t read those, but there were reports in 2020 of aerosolized transmission, and given some of the spreads that happened it *has* to be transmittable by aerosol.

      • Raul Miller said, on August 14, 2021 at 12:31 am

        I think that you have assumed that “aerosol” means “virus floating free in the air”, but I think that it means “virus in droplets of water”. And while a mask is too coarse to filter out something the size of an individual virus, it’s very definitely capable of catching some amount of the water being exhaled.

        Now, obviously, there are practical limits here.

        But the idea that masks can reduce the amount of viral aerosol floating in the air if used intelligently seems valid enough that “of course” reasoning without any spelled out reasoning is not going to cut it.

        (Used intelligently: clean the things between uses — we don’t know much about how fast the virus dies off, and of course make sure it is over your nose and mouth, and use it in combination with other mechanisms designed to reduce exposure.)

        • William O. B'Livion said, on August 14, 2021 at 6:52 pm

          I’m not assuming anything.

          I’ve had (very) basic WMD training in the military, and being somewhat of a geek, have done some digging on my own from time to time. I’m not expert, and won’t even play one on the internet (especially not with the sort of people that Locklin tends to gather).

          I couldn’t have given you the exact difference between the two, but you made me go look it up. Thanks.

          > Droplets and aerosols are respiratory particles created when you cough, sneeze, or talk.
          > The World Health Organization (WHO) defines respiratory droplets and aerosols by size:
          > droplets are >5-10 micrometers (μm) in diameter whereas aerosols are can also refer to tiny respiratory particles created during medical procedures such as intubation,
          > which are referred to as “aerosol-generating procedures.”

          https://scienceforgeorgia.org/2020/08/droplet-aerosol-airborne-whats-the-difference-and-do-i-still-have-to-wear-a-mask/

          Aerosols *do not* rapidly fall to the ground. If you’re in an enclosed space with a sufficiently nasty spreader AND the ventilation isn’t good you WILL be exposed. That’s life. Or death, whatever.

          Droplets *do* fall rapidly to the ground. In Europe they tend to fall to the ground in about 50cm, so the recommendation is about 1 meter. Here in the US we have more aggressive and mobile droplets (just like everything else here) and they will go three feet, so the recommendation is 6 feet.

          > But the idea that masks can reduce the amount of viral aerosol floating in the air if used
          > intelligently seems valid enough that “of course” reasoning without any spelled out reasoning
          > is not going to cut it.

          It may seem that way, but mostly because human brains are *really* bad at teeny tiny and REALLY BIG.

          Aerosols are *less than 5μm*. This is like putting a bullet through a 3×5 index card at 10 yards. Except instead of a pissant 9mm, you’re using a Dillion M134D, and the target has LOTS of 3×5 cards 5 inches apart. Lots of virus particles are going to hit in-between cards. Lots of them *won’t”.

          If you smoke, or have a friend that smokes, do this. Take a video of them exhaling smoke. Then take a video of them exhaling smoke through a white mask. Then

          So let’s distinguish between three things:

          1. Masks actually *designed* to filter the air. P99, N95, KN95 that are produced by companies with integrity and QA (which rules out many of the Asian sources). This also includes “gas” masks.
          2. Masks–mostly surgical–designed to stop *droplets* from falling into a patient who is cut open.
          3. Random scraps of fabric strapped across the nose and mouth.

          Properly worn–more on that below–the first kind of “mask” (often called a respirator) will prevent transmission of sufficient quantities of virus in either direction.

          Keep in mind that last year I lost my job before the panicdemic hit, and spent about 9 months delivering groceries 8 to 10 hours a day, 5 or more days a week. I was in grocery stores, masked, for about half of that. That’s some significant time in a mask, and in a wide variety of weather.

          The second and third kind *might* block some of the aerosol. And it might catch some of the droplets. But it doesn’t catch all of it. Walking to an airconditioned building my glasses *almost always* fogged up. So much for blocking the virus, right? Oh, that meant it went *UP* rather than out. See again “aerosol”.

          And if you wear the mask any time at all it will get damp, and then with each and every breath you risk blowing smaller droplets or aerosolized particles off the mask.

          Oh, and the better the mask filters, the less pleasant it’s going to be to wear. Which means more fiddling with it. Which leads to:

          > (Used intelligently: clean the things between uses — we don’t know much about how fast the virus
          > dies off, and of course make sure it is over your nose and mouth, and use it in combination with
          > other mechanisms designed to reduce exposure.)

          Here is the protocol for “properly” wearing a mask:

          1. Wash your hands thoroughly with soap.
          2. Take the mask out of it’s package with CLEAN hands.
          3. Put the mask on your face and DO NOT TOUCH IT AGAIN until step 9. AT ALL.
          4. Wash your hands again, with soap.
          5. Grab a clean pair of surgical gloves out of the box and put them on.
          6. Go about your day.
          7. Remove the gloves *carefully* by pulling from the wrist turning the glove inside out.
          8. Wash your hands.
          9. Remove the mask and either wash it in hot, soapy water or throw it a bio-hazard bag.
          10. Wash your hands.

          Bio-hazard bag? Yeah, because IF the mask stops, or could stop sufficient amounts of virus it now potentially is COVERED in viruses, and hence a biohazard.

          If you touch the mask *at all* during the day you risk transferring the virus to your hands, and then anything you touch.

          • Raul Miller said, on August 14, 2021 at 7:04 pm

            Now that’s much more interesting to respond to,

            And, yes, I have to agree that masks only filter some of the aerosol. How much depends on the mask, and you’ve gone into some detail there.

            That said, aerosol is from breathing, but coughing mostly produces droplets. So… there’s that. But currently people are thinking it’s the aerosol that’s the vector for this pandemic.

            Still… for aerosols distributed mostly in the 0.1 μm range, cloth masks seem to filter about half of that if I am reading https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7185834/ right. Let me know if you have better data (for example, from better test procedures), or if you think I’m reading that wrong,

            • Brutus said, on August 15, 2021 at 12:17 am

              Don’t forget the fecal-oral route, which remains a suspected route of transmission. Since toilets in public restrooms can result in aerosols, it’s another hard to avoid risk many.

              • Scott Locklin said, on August 15, 2021 at 11:06 am

                That’s one we should have figured out by now. But I guess people would rather talk about muh variants or putting novaxers in camps.

  15. Darksith69 said, on August 13, 2021 at 9:33 pm

    > Remember, Polio was basically caused by keeping babies clean […] +hyperlink

    I like how the hyperlink you provide about Polio has a further link to research that challenges the hygiene hypothesis.

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 13, 2021 at 9:38 pm

      Always be questioning. It’s entirely possible that was bullshit too. People suggest it was pesticides, though it seems pretty unlikely to me.

      • Brutus said, on August 14, 2021 at 1:27 am

        I’ve only recently heard the pesticide theory. This thread (https://twitter.com/forrestmaready/status/1005129851282558976) makes it sound logical enough. Then again every theory of the Kennedy assassination also sounds reasonable when presented by a respective advocate, but they can’t all be true.

        • William O. B'Livion said, on August 14, 2021 at 6:58 pm

          The problem with these sorts of things is it’s too easy to curate what is passed on. Evidence that would make one question the theory or out-right exculpatory evidence is not given.

          And the hardest thing to see is what isn’t there.

        • tmart said, on August 21, 2021 at 4:48 pm

          “Fatal Error” The movie and book by the gun expert cleared up most of the Kennedy Assassination for me, and it’s been out since 1992. I just watch it a few moths ago.

  16. Darksith69 said, on August 13, 2021 at 10:07 pm

    The thing about lockdowns not being effective… not sure if it’s measuring the result of lockdowns themselves or the success of people actually conforming to lockdowns. From personal experience in Spain, our first lockdown was strongly self enforced because people were so scared of something they didn’t know about they volunteered to stay in balconies vigilante style and report to the police any movement outside. After all, there was not much else to do, so they had vigilante fun aspiring to be temporarily part of those who oppress.

    But once that got old, and once people started to get a grip with how things seemed to be going, the following second/third/etc wave lockdowns were not enforced so much, each of them being less than the previous both in terms of range, self enforcement and state policed. My family lives 400km away from me and I never had problems travelling back and forth despite crossing several lockdown regions. The secondary lockdowns had exceptions allowing travel for certain reasons, like work reasons, special child care, very urgent matters, etc. And you are not going to cut roads to check everybody who passes, less so if cutting the road slows down the “legal” travellers and removes policemen you could have somewhere else doing something useful.

    Plus recently the lesser lockdowns were considered unconstitutional and thus all the fines given to people breaking the lockdown have to be returned by the state, and likely we won’t ever be able to lockdown anything at all in Spain, since nobody gives a fuck any more.

    An effective lockdown could only be enforced if 50% of the population was part of the police state, or like during the first lockdown when everybody aspired to be a hero vigilante. Other than that, lockdowns are much more theater than anything else, maybe even fall into the wash-your-hands effectiveness category.

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 13, 2021 at 10:19 pm

      It ultimately doesn’t matter either way: real world, long term, in the absence of oceans between you and other countries, the lockdowns don’t work. Not even with good compliance.

      BTW I had friends on Grand Cayman (was almost based there myself); those imbeciles had two cases of covid, both of which were from cruise ships and immediately repatriated to the mainland. The chucklehead governor apparently doesn’t understand how the germ theory of disease works. Despite there being no regular flights in, and a mandatory two week quarantine for people arriving on island, people were restricted to their houses based on their last names for 5/7 of the week, and only allowed out to go shopping. That also didn’t work. Sure there was no virus spread; there wouldn’t have been if everyone went to the beach.

      • Darksith69 said, on August 13, 2021 at 10:48 pm

        > It ultimately doesn’t matter either way: real world, long term, in the absence of oceans between you and other countries, the lockdowns don’t work. Not even with good compliance.

        Well, lockdowns did work according to statistics for Spain, every time one was enforced when corona cases were growing, the rate slowed down, then started to fall. The problem is definitely compilance, each of these curves grew wider because each was less enforced. Also, in your anecdote, it’s not like lockdown “didn’t work” but lockdown wasn’t needed. To say lockdown did not work, you would need to tell me an anecdote about having the Grand Cayman locked down and the corona cases still growing.

        With regards to immunity syndrome, you mention New Zealand now has weird outbreakes caused by long year lockdowns. This does not compute, New Zealand has always been the success case of lockdowns. While we were still in the second one the news we had from there was that they had eliminated coronavirus and were living a normal life, with the only remaining restrictions applying to people leaving/entering the country. The people living in New Zealand have probably been the less locked down from all the populations on earth. Hence, you can’t attribute those outbreaks to something which has not happened, as they presumably lived their normal life as they always did before corona.

        Looking now at statistics, 26 total corona deaths since the beginning. You seriously think they spent a year and a half locked down at home or with masks with such numbers?

        • Brendan Eich said, on August 14, 2021 at 12:27 am

          No. (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33400268/ “(Spain had a nonsignificant effect)”.

          • Darksith69 said, on August 19, 2021 at 7:20 pm

            Well, let’s add some context to those figures, which are about early 2020. They claim the lockdowns had no difference with regards to other measures. Fine, but… there were no other measures. We didn’t have masks for most of the population until august, and there are pretty much no other measures which are effective against transmission. So it’s not like Spain could have used _other_ measures than lockdown.

        • Walt said, on August 14, 2021 at 3:17 am

          There are a ton of studies on Martin Kulldorf’s page about the lockdowns. Even if they did “work” in the sense of reducing mortality from COVID, there were massive trade-offs such as greater poverty for the poor, mental health harms, and so on. Public health must take these trade-offs into account. But as Mr. Eich’s study below shows – and there are many others that agree – they didn’t work to reduce mortality because much of the spread was within households – the so-called “secondary attack rate.” Lockdowns and social distancing were not even possible in dense Asian countries.

          • Raul Miller said, on August 14, 2021 at 6:03 am

            You are absolutely correct that there’s other issues (the “people need to eat” stuff).

            However, claiming that the lockdowns did not “work” does not carry much (if any) information.

            The lockdowns reduced the death rate — putting off deaths until later, buying time for vaccine development, and so on. But the lockdowns did not prevent the deaths which did occur. But, of course, everyone dies eventually.

            But, also, there’s been a tendency for death rates to surge after lockdowns are lifted in densely populated locations.

            But, also, “lockdown” is only an approximate description of efforts to reduce viral exposure. People taking those steps where there’s no “lockdown” and people not taking those steps where there’s officially a “lockdown” are part of the scene here.

            • William O. B'Livion said, on August 14, 2021 at 7:26 pm

              > However, claiming that the lockdowns did not “work” does not carry much (if any) information.

              How about a much stronger claim.

              In a society where less than 80% of the people are directly engaged in agriculture *long term* lockdowns (as defined by “more than a week”) *CANNOT* work.

              As noted above I spent most of last year doing grocery delivery. I would go to a store, shop an order, pay for it, and deliver it.

              The second and third week of April (IIRC) the suburban stores were *empty*. At one point 80% of the shoppers in the Target I was in were from the company I was contracting with. There were more of us than store employees. I was able–at 5 o’clock in the afternoon–to do “wire speed” through downtown on the highway.

              Then people started running out of things. So back to the stores they went.

              If 80% (arbitrary number, but it’s going to be directionally right) are involved in food production *most* of them will have sufficient stores to get by. Maybe a little lean, but they can do it.

              In the US around 1 percent of the population “works in agriculture”, and a lot of that is the modern “factory farm”.

              So the farmers have to work–which is fine, because there’s not a lot more “social distance” than a guy in a tractor in the middle of a field, or working in a pig factory or whatever.

              But you’ve got to get that raw material shipped from the farms to the processing facilities–which need on-site workers–and then to the next stage–again onsite workers. Then eventually trucked to the grocery stores, which need shelvers and cashiers onsite.

              You need doctors, and nurses. Police men, firefighters, EMTs, garbage men–none of this can be done remote. Ok, that’s obvious. Next layer–you need gas delivered and pumped. You need mechanics to service the vehicles that those folks use.

              You need the insurance offices staffed. You need to keep office supplies moving.

              Outside of Government and some “too big to fail” corporations EVERY worker is an essential worker on some timeline. (well, every position is. Some of the workers aren’t)

              And people need to make a living. Now, a lot of us can work remotely (I got a contract in November that paid real money), but how do you tell a hair dresser that she can’t feed her kids?

              In the modern world a “quarantine”–40 days of isolation–isn’t possible.

              • Raul Miller said, on August 14, 2021 at 7:38 pm

                That looks to be largely true, as far as it goes.

                Meanwhile, though, thanks in part to Reaganomics, a large part of our “economy” is “service industry”. And, I guess in response to this pandemic we’re going to sooner or later have to start redirecting some of those sales, insurance, webdev, etc. people back into “agricultural” occupations.

                I imagine that it won’t be pretty.

        • Scott Locklin said, on August 15, 2021 at 10:40 am

          >The people living in New Zealand have probably been the less locked down from all the populations on earth.

          New Zealand literally only stopped its ridiculously draconian lockdown on Auckland in March of this year. If New Zealand were a sane society run by technocrats instead of a dystopia run by a hysterical moron, they wouldn’t have locked down so hard. Grand Cayman did the same thing; I dunno maybe they were afraid the covid sea turtles would breathe on them.

          Proponents of lockdowns at this point need to come up with numbers. Numbers of lives saved and cost per life. IMO, the number of lives saved is a negative number, and the cost is absurdly high.

          • Darksith69 said, on August 19, 2021 at 7:29 pm

            > Proponents of lockdowns at this point need to come up with numbers. Numbers of lives saved and cost per life. IMO, the number of lives saved is a negative number, and the cost is absurdly high.

            And you can’t come up with these numbers? How nice of you to put the weight of proving your ideas on your adversaries! ;-P

            • Scott Locklin said, on August 20, 2021 at 11:43 am

              What for? Innumerate boot-licker dipshits like you will continue to advocate for ineffective, totalitarian measures even if a formal mathematical proof was demonstrated.

              This is all addition and subtraction: high profile no-lockdown places did better than or the same as places with totalitarian lockdowns. If you have some fetish for being locked up; feel free to not go outside and get your food delivered. The people who can add and subtract and who understand how biology works would prefer to get on with life.

  17. Xens said, on August 14, 2021 at 12:12 am

    I think the VAERS reports need to be normed against the number of deaths you’d expect in that population anyway. Give a vaccine to 100M +85yos, and you expect ~15M/365 to die same day. x14 for a death in the same 2 week period. And since people are excited about experimental vaccines, docs fill out more reports than you see for boring old (inexplicably useless in nursing homes) flu vaccines. So 10K VAERS deaths don’t phase me too much. Could be nothing. I’m more worried about the heart enlargement hospitalizations among young people, especially as this turns into a booster program.

    And while I’m a little afraid of the vaccines winding up being a medical fuckup for us on some scale, I’m a lot afraid of the freedoms being seized to force them on people.

    Another thing, which you didn’t get into, is what I’d consider the masking paradox: people behave differently when they put on masks, possibly making them mostly useless in practice. (Several studies from recent decades on surgery infections with and without masks, always getting the annoying wrong result.)

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 15, 2021 at 10:30 am

      The overall VAERS results for the ‘ronavaxes are the worst in the history of VAERS for side effects of all kinds. It’s abundantly, ridiculously obvious; punctuated by numerous celebrities dropping dead or getting seriously ill within days of being very publicly vaccinated (along with Orwellian “yeah, it totally wasn’t the vaccine because reasons” messaging).

      It’s still a reasonable risk profile for some people to gamble on the vaccines, assuming they actually confer long term immunity, depending on your personal risk profile and history of disease. But it’s not a no-brainer, and it may turn out that these vaccines confer no long term benefit, or even shorten life on average. As I said above; the UK at least (at the time I wrote it down anyway) seems to think for kids at least, it’s not a good bet. It might turn out to be the case for 40 year olds. It might turn out to be the case for everybody. People who assert we must all be vaccinated because the potato in the white house or the NYT says so are just retards though.

  18. norton said, on August 14, 2021 at 6:26 am

    Ivermectin doesn’t work, the studies in the meta-analysis are shit. Garbage in garbage out.

    I’m surprised by this post, you’ve bought into a lot of crackpot bullshit. “there’s been around 10,000 directly attributed deaths in the US” this isn’t even remotely true, you don’t know anything about the VAERS system if you think a VAERS report being filed means its a “directly attributable death”, most of the reports are still unverified and uninvestigated. Many of the reports are almost certainly of very old people who died of natural causes shortly after getting the vaccine in the spring so their doctors filed *just in case*; normally old people are not vaccinated in large numbers for anything, but they were this time, hence the flood of reports about possible vaccine side-effect deaths (really just deaths of old age that happened to occur days or weeks after 87 year old nursing-home patient got the jab) that came largely during the big initial vaccine push targeting the oldest people. This is obvious and it should have occurred to you. And now as the issue of vaccine side-effects has become so politicized, its likely that anti-vax nutjobs will file false reports (which they are free to do, this is how loose the system is, another reason your “directly attributable deaths” claim is stupid and wrong) to skew the data.

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 14, 2021 at 7:52 am

      I love it; people dying of the vaccine are just old… people dying of covid who are 87 …. terrible tragedy.

      Thanks for the hot take on Ivermectin; I never heard that one before.

      • Raul Miller said, on August 14, 2021 at 11:25 am

        Painfully oversimplified. But yes, old people tend to be fragile.

        And the 6.1e5+ usa deaths from the pandemic are still lower than the 3.2e6 “routine” deaths per year which we would expect from years prior to 2020. And … a venn diagram might be useful here.

        (Meanwhile, I am expecting the phrase “2020 hindsight” to pick up some new implications, within a few years.)

        • Raul Miller said, on August 14, 2021 at 11:28 am

          Oops… 2.85e6 yearly deaths. (USA’s population was smaller, back when the older people were born…)

        • Scott Locklin said, on August 14, 2021 at 8:16 pm

          One of them is becoming required by law (and damn the unknown long term consequences -contra the imbecile comment above, which are mostly to young people), the other is avoidable misfortune. Is that too oversimplified for you?

          • Raul Miller said, on August 15, 2021 at 1:09 am

            Probably.

            But I would have to read the law to be sure. (Laws invariably have loopholes, both intentional and unintentional.)

            And then there’s the subsequent regulations…

      • Punnoval said, on August 15, 2021 at 10:59 pm

        For What It’s Worth, here are 4 articles on Ivermectin:

        https://respectfulinsolence.com/?s=Ivermectin

        The author, David Gorski, has a style quite similar to yours. Is this good?

    • Walt said, on August 14, 2021 at 2:51 pm

      “there’s been around 10,000 directly attributed deaths in the US” this isn’t even remotely true, you don’t know anything about the VAERS system if you think a VAERS report being filed means its a “directly attributable death”, most of the reports are still unverified and uninvestigated.

      Actually, VAERS is the raw data that goes into the investigations. The fact that most reports are unverified and uninvestigated in this case is because there are so many of them and the mRNA vaccines appear to be the least-safe we’ve created in a long time. We vaccinated the same number of people for the flu in the 2019 flu season without the massive spike in VAERS. I called my doctor about getting the vaccine and he said he’d seen a lot of adverse events and had reported some. It took him half an hour of waiting on the phone with the CDC to get through. The reports in VAERS are a lower bound.

      This is obvious and it should have occurred to you. And now as the issue of vaccine side-effects has become so politicized, its likely that anti-vax nutjobs will file false reports (which they are free to do, this is how loose the system is, another reason your “directly attributable deaths” claim is stupid and wrong) to skew the data.

      It’s a federal crime to make false VAERS reports. Most are filed by practitioners.

      • Igor Bukanov said, on August 14, 2021 at 4:18 pm

        It is interesting to compare Sweden with Norway that are similar in culture and population density. While Sweden got significant excessive dearth in 2020, in Norway the excessive dearth was negative.

        Essentially soft lockdowns here killed the flu. “Soft” means work from home if possible, wear masks on public transport and indoor in public places, closure of gyms and cinema and short-term closure of non-essential shops. There were never a requirement to wear a mask outside or stay at home.

        • Brendan Eich said, on August 14, 2021 at 5:04 pm

          Hi Igor! Quick reply to note that AFAIK, Flu didn’t disappear in past due to soft NPIs. Viral competition?

          https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30114-2/fulltext

          • Igor Bukanov said, on August 14, 2021 at 5:54 pm

            Hi Brendan,

            In Norway the flu disappeared in May 2020 long before any significant number of people got infected with the new thing. So competition from viruses cannot be attributed to it.

            There is a debate here which factor contributed most to the difference between countries or cities (Oslo is 250 km from Gøteborg with very similar climate, geography and population but with very different results). No conclusion so far. My favorite pet theory is that ban or severe restrictions on sale of alcoholic beverages in cafe and bars was a noticeable factor. Without alcohol people here see much less points to meet.

            • Brendan Eich said, on August 15, 2021 at 7:04 am

              I don’t know what explains observed near-zero of Flu in 2020, but consider this: SARS2 was publicly sequenced only around 1/11/2020 but may have been spreading rapidly before then (post-mortem positives in France and Santa Clara County, CA from early in 2020 or late 2019). We must find a way to avoid confounding tests and known genome with true cases.

              • Igor Bukanov said, on August 15, 2021 at 8:18 am

                In the beginning of epidemic in Norway most cases were brought by people returning from France and Italy alpine resorts, the same as in Sweeden. There is no indications of earlier virus presence. And even assuming that in March 2020 asymptomatic cases increased exponentially (a soft lockdown have started here at the end of the month), there is no way it could infected 10% of population even in major cities. Flue on the other hand routinely affected like 10% at the same month. And in Spring 2020 it did not happen and by May it just disappeared after a rapid decline that started after the lockdown.

                But in any case, the point is that there is a remarkable difference between Oslo and Gothenburg. Norway as whole is sufficiently different from Sweden, so its is better to look at those two cities that are much more similar to each other than countries. So clearly some lockdown measures did work in Norway to save lives if not from SARS2, but from flue. And there was a sort of self-imposed lockdown in Sweden, since people followed government advise there with similar results as in Norway for the economy.

                From what I read a speculation is that in Norway government-imposed restrictions including that alcohol serving bans were good enough to stop super-spreader events. But then again, this is a speculation and perhaps there were non-trivial difference between cities that, not lockdowns, can explain so different results. Like for example, rental electrical scooters are much more popular in Oslo than Gothenburg so young people use public transport less often here…

  19. joyfullyuseless said, on August 14, 2021 at 1:12 pm

    Hi Scott, thank you for such a thorough, thought-provoking, eye-opening (and of course, funny and well-written, but can one expect any less?) essay. Have you come across these attempts to estimate vaccine-induced mortality?
    https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/estimating-vaccine-induced-mortality
    https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/estimating-vaccine-induced-mortality-e07
    He seems to be on to something, but I don’t have the chops to figure out if that really is the case.

    Keep up the outstanding work!

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 15, 2021 at 10:19 am

      Crawford is a mixture of interesting ideas and paranoid/bad ideas. For example, he thinks odds ratio is a conspiracy by the CDC to conceal bad VAERS outcomes.

      https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/defining-away-vaccine-safety-signals/comments#comment-2473713

      ” I personally suspect that over 100,000 Americans have been killed by the experimental vaccines.” -chyeah, no. You could probably see that in the overall death stats. I think it’s probably about 10,000 like the HHS s(ays/aid). I think it’s possible 100,000 Americans could eventually die of shitty vax though.

      That’s the problem with this sort of thing: almost everyone is doing advocacy argumentation rather than trying to figure out what’s going on. Do you think Crawford could admit it if it turned out he was wrong? It doesn’t look that way based on my (brief and admittedly dickish) interactions with him. I mean, I don’t blame him for taking what the mainstream says and asserting the opposite. My list above is the explanation for why so many people do this. The mainstream authorities are consistently *dead fucking wrong.* However if all you had to do to beat the stock market is the opposite of a losing strategy, being a trader would be really easy. It’s easy to be wrong in spectacular ways, but there’s only limited ways to be correct.

      • jouyfullyuseless said, on August 15, 2021 at 2:14 pm

        Thanks for this, Scott. That’s what my instinct told me, and it’s good to have your confirmation. Your point about advocacy argumentation is very important: I’ve already been in heated arguments with friends (so-called) who believe I’m being irresponsible and selfish by refusing to take the faccine. I had the covids in April, but even if I hadn’t, I doubt it would be easy to persuade me to get vacked (I’m 41 and in reasonably good shape). While I feel the approach I have taken is the right one, based on what I’ve read, I’m ready to admit that I wasn’t right enough, or partly wrong, or whatever.

  20. SZ said, on August 15, 2021 at 3:16 am

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7572356/

    Taleb et al. wrote this in response to John Ioannidis.

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 15, 2021 at 10:05 am

      Taleb remains an imbecile who should stick with recipes black duck spaghetti or whatever his gig is.

  21. glaucous noise said, on August 15, 2021 at 5:37 pm

    Side note but I find Alex Jones to be oddly mesmerizing to listen to, particularly when he spontaneously flies into a rage filled waking daydream where he envisions strangling Klaus Schwab before emitting a guttural, bestial snarl, prompting his crew to intervene before he accrues any sort of legal culpability.

    Sometimes, I think of him as my id manifesting in corporeal form, and managed just well enough to accumulate an audience somewhere in the ballpark of ten million live viewers*.

    *according to himself, but such a host seems consistent with my experience of our demented reality. Who knows; perhaps he is not only the Walter Cronkite of our age, but the Walter Cronkite we need.

    Hmm, after writing that last sentence, I find myself possessed of an intense need to find a bottle of absinthe.

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 15, 2021 at 9:40 pm

      If the last 10 years haven’t convinced you that we all owe Alex Jones a huge apology, you’re probably One Of Them.

      • glaucous noise said, on August 16, 2021 at 2:41 am

        Oh yes, I’ve gone from a dismissive detractor to a semi-avid enjoyer for a reason.

        • joyfullyuseless said, on August 16, 2021 at 3:29 am

          Have you come across this glorious thing? https://youtu.be/KGAAhzreGWw

        • anonymous said, on August 16, 2021 at 3:39 pm

          I wonder if paranoia exists, not because it’s (or despite it being) a malfunction, but because it’s adaptive? The paranoid guy can be wrong (probably is wrong) about all the details, but can still be right about the nature of his world or society.

          Every so often, society goes insane. Conformity ratchets to infinity, and the high priests/shamans line everyone up for some Jonestown suicide act or gratuitous act of evil – paranoia tells you to escape to the hills for a while until the craziness takes its inevitable course. All the reasonable sounding people are calmly and rationally advocating, in ever more forceful and coercive ways, lunacy that ends in virgins getting their hearts cut out so that the sun rises tomorrow.

          • Brendan Eich said, on August 17, 2021 at 7:48 am

            Cf. Andy Grove’s motto.

            • anonymous said, on August 23, 2021 at 2:39 am

              Thanks for the reference: The guy has an interesting autobiography. (The one about his childhood, not Intel.)

  22. Montius said, on August 16, 2021 at 1:00 pm

    Dearest Scott,

    You need to go on BAP’s podcast. For the children.

    (It’s me, I’m the children)

  23. gbell12 said, on August 16, 2021 at 9:36 pm

    If you think Dr Robert Malone is worth anything, there’s a lot in this interview
    https://www.brighteon.com/eb29bf5a-837d-4f6f-a062-52db65cff882

  24. idarthor said, on August 16, 2021 at 10:46 pm

    Re: 2.4 – Lab Leak: This suddenly got a lot more acceptable to talk about after Biden’s election and it wasn’t just a Trump Issue. Several Dem-leaning commentators/media suddenly started talking about how we needed to take the possibility seriously some months ago, US intelligence was instructed to look into it etc, but it seems to have died down a bit for whatever reason.

    Personally, I was convinced to not really care about this by a @dsquareddigest twitter take:

    “an investigation into a totalitarian state which lies all the time, carried out by an intelligence service which lies all the time is simply not going to give an answer. you can’t develop a better algorithm to find the true value of one divided by zero.”

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 17, 2021 at 9:54 am

      I think it was entirely the efforts of Nick Wade who brought this out of the /chans. He’s an old school, aka “real and correct” science journalist.

  25. Aspiring Midwit said, on August 17, 2021 at 11:57 pm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjafLCvejQA potholer does a pretty in-depth analysis of Wade’s article in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, looking up the original sources referenced by Wade and checking if they match what Wade claims they said.
    The comments on the video are a circlejerk of “I F-ing Love Science!” types so I’m wondering if there’s an aspect being missed.

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 18, 2021 at 1:54 pm

      Pretty astoundingly dumb, in addition to false, statements on my sample. Wade may be incorrect in his speculations, but he certainly didn’t get any of his facts wrong, and smug yutzes like this aren’t adding anything to the conversation.

      • Aspiring Midwit said, on August 18, 2021 at 5:49 pm

        Something about potholer’s style had been offputting for a while, especially about this topic but I’ve struggled to articulate why. I think it’s the appeal to incredulity “of course they wouldn’t do that, that would be really dangerous or hard” and smarmy “that’s what Science says” attitude that fills in the gaps between “but why did this writer paraphrase the source?” arguments.
        So I guess I answered my own question about why the comments on the video are what they are.

  26. === popurls.com === popular today said, on August 18, 2021 at 2:46 pm

    […] Things the Establishment got Wrong about Covid-19 […]

  27. […] Here‘s a helpful rundown (apologies for the crassness and vulgarity). And Locklin doesn’t even mention that “Pfizer crossed its published benchmark before Election Day, but didn’t want to have to announce its results, so it shut down its lab work on [its COVID-19 vaccine].” Nor does he fully dive into the media’s role in everything (nor the geopolitical angle). […]

  28. Ross said, on August 19, 2021 at 8:00 am

    This is probably the most extensive essay that I have seen on Covid. This is Anglin-tier writing. I am so sick of everyone pretending like this is a plague.

    We need more writers like you. If you ever need any web dev work, let me know. One of the reasons I got into development was to help out thought criminals. I will not charge you a dime. I can do everything from WordPress to Soydev stuff. The email address is where to contact me.

    I am not bot from India either.

  29. […] Scott Locklin summarizes everything the establishment got wrong with covid. […]

  30. Verisimilitude said, on August 20, 2021 at 10:50 pm

    I vaguely remember my disappointment at realizing this so-called pandemic was fake, and not something which would kill hundreds of millions, perhaps leaving more room for me. This has been an attempt to hijack empathy, similar to those who demand TLS be used everywhere on the WWW.

    I’ve decided I won’t write about this so-called pandemic on my website, if only because I doubt I’ve anything interesting to write which others haven’t. Regardless of my disdain for the topic, this article has been educational and entertaining.

  31. truth said, on August 21, 2021 at 3:23 pm

    the only one that’s wrong is number 1.. Ot is the flu period show me a pic of covid under the microscope come on show me…

  32. Multilingual Mob said, on August 22, 2021 at 3:24 am

    Good luck to the vaccinated
    Good luck to the unvaccinated
    And good luck to Rona for trying to make the world pristine again 😉

  33. daveginoly said, on August 22, 2021 at 4:31 am

    Alex Jones said over a year ago that the vaccines wouldn’t work, and that, surprise, we’d be put on a cycle of vaccinations. So it wasn’t just muscleheads in the street in Canada who had this figured out.

    “It’s just the flu”
    True, the MSM downplayed it at first, but later (as in “now”) they changed their tune and its now “far worse than the flu” even though the IFR for all ages under about 60 is well under the IFR of seasonal flus.

    • Raul Miller said, on August 22, 2021 at 11:44 am

      How many politicians are under age 60?

      Seriously, though: IFR is not a constant — for any disease it has dependencies on population density and (for the flu) on vaccinations, among other things. See https://www.thelancet.com/article/S2213-2600(20)30527-0/fulltext for one view of some of those issues.

      Also, though, we have been dealing with the flu for quite a long time. So the rules for dealing with the flu are “baked in” to our “establishments”. Once upon a time, it was a much bigger problem. But we don’t have personal memories from those times.

  34. Mimi said, on August 22, 2021 at 4:12 pm

    Dear Scott,

    I just wanted to say that I ABSOLUTELY love this HILARIOUS and brilliant analysis of our totalitarian society. Reading it was psychologically therapeutic – I am not kidding!
    I’m also not kidding when I say that I have been traumatized by the mass stupidity I see in my community here in Los Angeles. I have been mask-shamed by my neighbors and colleagues and berated by my mom because I am hesitant to take the vaccine. What disturbs me the most is just how stupid people can be!!! Honestly! God forbid we should use our common sense! Apparently, that’s “racist,” considering it’s a foundational component of Western Civilization. It’s crazy making!

    Thank you, also, for using sarcasm and cuss words for emphasizing the moronic nature of the times in which we live. Your justified venting inspires me to vent my anger at the gaslighters in our political leadership.

    Just like Tucker Carlson is my “Fox Crush” and Ron DeSantis is my “Gov Crush,” you are my new “Blog Crush!” I don’t mean it in a creepy way, I just admire folks who give the totalitarian “experts” the bird!!!

    Thank you so much!

    Mimi

  35. Doctor Fraudci said, on August 23, 2021 at 11:15 am

    Interesting analysis but based on a primary falsehood and should be revised.

    That falsehood is the PCR test. From the outset that test has been used to determine if an individual has covid 19, symptomatic or not. This is VERY important. This test has been run at exceptionally high cycle counts in numerous locales. In my state it was run at 37 which has been shown to have a more than 90% false positive rate. The CDC has recently and quietly decided to terminate the usage of this test because of it’s fallibility and it’s inability to discriminate between the flu, colds or covid.

    Using this fact. ALL death counts from any source are invalid (including the CDC) and must be tossed out. It has been shown anecdotally that if an individual dies from ANY cause and tests positive for the disease at the time of death than the primary cause of death will be listed as covid 19. This has massively increased the amount of deaths attributed to this fake killer flu.

    The end goal of this fuckery has always been to inject a good chunk of the western with an untested and strange substance that has nothing to do with a flu or whatever. I’ll leave what this substance will do to the morons who willfully take it as something for the ‘conspiracy theorists’, but I for one have zero desire in being in a guinea pig for some of the worst human beings in history.

    Oh and don’t pretend for one second they have no idea what this ‘experimental mRNA genetic therapy’ injection will do to humanity, They’ve been cooking this one up for a long time and have had plenty of time to get it right. Just google Operation Lockstep.

    • Raul Miller said, on August 23, 2021 at 7:04 pm

      That’s not the only test, of course. And, not all uses of the PCR test were run at ludicrous cycle counts. I remember some specific cases where it was used incorrectly, though — so that was indeed an issue.

    • gbell12 said, on August 24, 2021 at 12:03 am

      “Lock Step” is just one of the four scenarios envisioned in the report. So much epsilon-minus blog bullshit on the internet. Go to the source, the actual report from The Rockefeller Foundation:

      Click to access Rockefeller%20Foundation.pdf

      I mean, if you’re going to cherry-pick, why not have picked the “Clever Together” scenario?

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 26, 2021 at 9:48 am

      The CDC seemed to do a decent job; the number of extra dead people in the US matches the number of people they say died of corona-chan. I put a helpful gist in that section above, which I will highlight below:

      ## install.packages("MMWRweek")
      require("MMWRweek")
      require(xts)
      require(timeDate)
      read.csv("https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2020-2021/data/NCHSData19.csv&quot😉 -> data2021
      pnts <- xts(data2021$All.Deaths ,as.timeDate(MMWRweek2Date(data2021$Year,data2021$Week)) + 7 * 24 * 3600)
      mean(apply.yearly(pnts["::2019"],sum)) ## mean deaths of recent pre-rona years
      years <- apply.yearly(pnts,sum) ## deaths each year
      plot(pnts) ## you can see the peaks
      as.numeric(years[8]) – last(apply.yearly(pnts["::2019"],sum)) ## use last year for simplicity sake
      ## 499770 yeah, close enough for govt work

      view raw

      gistfile1.txt

      hosted with ❤ by GitHub

      The sperging on the PCR test may or may not have some validity; I’m guessing it has none based on this result.

      I don’t blame you for not trusting people; I wrote 6500 words on why they’re not trustworthy. Hell the present president and vice president both said they wouldn’t take it if the opposing party told them they had to. This is of course an insane state of affairs which someone should hang for, but since people’s memories are about 30 seconds long now, I doubt anyone will notice.

  36. Renee Bailey said, on August 23, 2021 at 11:50 am

    I wanted to bring something to your attention that I noticed last year when doing some research. I was curious about total deaths in 2020 compared to prior years so looked at the CDC stats on this. I wrote down the numbers for 2020 as well as the prior year. I noted with interest that for most months, the number of total deaths in 2020 was less than in 2019. A few months later, I looked again and once again wrote down the numbers. When comparing them I noted that the numbers from 2020 had been increased from what I had written down the first time–to correspond almost exactly with the number of deaths from COVID that had supposedly occurred. Were the numbers updated due to additional input or did the CDC cook the books because people noticed? I think the only way to know for sure is to look at each state’s data. Don’t trust the CDC at all.

    • Raul Miller said, on August 23, 2021 at 7:02 pm

      What numbers, though?

      I have been keeping an eye on CDC’s over the years. And, sometime around the end of Obama’s presidency and the start of Trump’s presidency, they went from being available for the previous year to being available a year later. Hopefully with a corresponding increase in care and accuracy.

      But, anyways, my impression is that numbers about deaths are not a real time high speed data feed, but a slow administrative process that takes quite some time to complete.

      But without knowing specifically what descriptions went with the numbers you were collecting (let alone the numbers themselves), it’s difficult to say more than that.

      • Raul Miller said, on August 23, 2021 at 7:02 pm

        … on CDC’s mortality tables… I meant.

    • Scott Locklin said, on August 26, 2021 at 9:43 am

      I was monitoring it; your mistake is as Raul said. It takes time to count the dead people.

  37. […] government and corporate controllers. His style is brash and offensive, and refreshing. His list of Things the Establishment Got Wrong About Wuhan Coof needs to be considered and preserved. We’re far from out of the wealth and power generating […]

  38. John F Weir said, on August 26, 2021 at 3:10 am

    Great analysis. Still laughing but what the fuck are the “GRIDS?” Searched for it – nothing. Enlighten me.

  39. […] toward parents suggests even considering that option is somehow anti-science. With coercive science like this, who needs magic and […]

  40. Chris said, on August 31, 2021 at 2:07 am

    (a) While Japan didn’t have stay at home orders, they did have “state of emergency” telling restaurants to close at 8pm and stop serving alcohol. Almost all complied (I live there). They are currently maxing out beds in some places. This means if you’re sick, you have to wait it out at home with your fingers crossed.

    (b) Scott Alexander’s lockdown analysis at AstralCodexTen blog spent a lot of time looking at Sweden and concluded that they didn’t do so hot, but also that they were more locked down later on in the time course than people think. I wonder what you think of his essay.

  41. John said, on September 3, 2021 at 3:58 pm

    Scott, this is great articool! I must ask that u plz email! I hav very important question! I attach email address in that box thing on wordpress! Is real! I cannot find any contact information elsewhere, so I must ask directly.

  42. Joe Clark said, on September 29, 2021 at 11:40 pm

    If you’re going to endlessly render the phrase the ’rona as though it were an adorable neologism of yours, at least learn to typeset a fucking apostrophe. Indeed, your posting is rife with copy errors.

  43. Jimi Brander said, on October 16, 2021 at 12:40 am

    I find it hard to express my opinion on this to the people that are the closest to me since everything gets discarded as “you would have to take to account the effects of the resistrictions that were put in place in your reasoning”. Really not convinced about the vaccines either, particularly since they are trying to force it down my throat through a covid pass. I’ve stopped caring as should anyone who has worked with the numbers.


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